Edmonton Oilers
Oilers’ Goalie Woes Explained by One Glaring, But Brutal Stat
One writer argued the Edmonton Oilers goaltending was performing well enough that it’s not the issue, but a key stat might say otherwise.
In a recent article for The Athletic, Allan Mitchell took a look at both Edmonton Oilers netminders, arguing that it’s not the goalies who are to blame for the team’s early struggles. While the 2024-25 early season record is improved compared to how the team started 2023-24, the Oilers aren’t where they want to be. Special teams seem to be the obvious issue and some fans have pointed fingers at Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Is that fair?
Mitchell argues, “Should the Oilers be worrying about the goaltending? Yes, on the penalty kill. It has to be better. Otherwise, the tandem appears locked and loaded for a long and successful season.” One fan took Mitchell to task in the comments section, suggesting that the scribe overlooked a very important element of his assessment.
Which Part of Mitchell’s Argument on Oilers Goalies Did the Fan Critique?
“The math makes it clear,” Mitchell wrote. He added, “As much as the penalty kill issue is partly on the goaltenders, the five-on-five performance suggests Edmonton’s goalies are a strong unit and worth the investment.” However, a fan responded, “Another buttercup analysis on the goaltending woes of this team. Refuses to look at the most important stat for goalies.”
This fan explained that Oilers’ goaltending troubles come from a closer look at the advanced metrics, including Goals Saved Above Expected (xGSA). He notes they are essential for evaluating goalie performance beyond traditional stats.
The argument here is that xGSA stands out as a significant metric because it factors in the quality of shots a goaltender faces. Unlike save percentage (SV%) or goals against average (GAA), which fail to differentiate between routine saves and high-danger chances. This gives a clearer, fairer comparison between netminders across teams with differing defensive structures.
Stuart Skinner Struggles In This Area
For context, the Oilers’ current goaltending situation is grim. Stuart Skinner ranks 66th out of 70 NHL goalies in xGSA. Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Jake Oettinger are at the top of the category, which the fan contends is no accident these elite goalies perform consistently well.
When it comes to SV% Skinner ranks just 42nd in the NHL. The fan argues that this is being kind to Skinner because five-on-five situations tend to make most NHL goalies post reasonable numbers. It is when the team is shorthanded and the shot quality increases dramatically that the Oilers really struggle.
The question perhaps is just how high quality are the high-danger chances Skinner is letting get by him? The Oilers have allowed 15 goals against when on the penalty kill, Skinner has faced 33 shots when shorthanded and allowed 8 goals. That’s a .757 save percentage, which is a big drop-off.
The expectation is that goalies will struggle more when facing a power play. That much more? That ranks him 60th for NHL goalies. Calvin Pickard is even worse, ranking 68th with a .563 save percentage.
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