Why NHL Coaches & Execs Give Stanley Cup Final Edge to Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers might have fallen short in last year’s Stanley Cup Final, but a growing number of NHL coaches and executives believe this time will be different. In a new poll conducted by Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, a significant shift in sentiment suggests that many insiders now see Edmonton as the team to beat in their rematch with the Florida Panthers.

The voting was close, and several execs and coaches also like Florida, but the idea that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl won’t be denied is carrying heavy weight in the polling process.

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Last year, just four of 33 polled chose Edmonton. This time, the Oilers earned far more support (poll ended up 21-19). Why the change? It starts with McDavid, but it includes a deeper roster and improved puck movement from the back end.

Several respondents cited the Oilers captain’s unrelenting determination to finally win the Stanley Cup as a serious factor in the outcome of the series. McDavid looks to join Wayne Gretzky, Sidney Crosby and others as ‘revenge’ Cup winners, and GM Stan Bowman said in a presser on Tuesday that he visited with McDavid last summer shortly after he was hired. All that McDavid would talk about was winning the Cup.

Many who voted believe McDavid won’t be denied again. As one coach put it, “It feels like it’s 97’s time, and he is on a mission that no one is going to stop.” Draisaitl said, “It’s everything he’s ever dreamed of. It’s everything he ever put his work in for, that he grinds for, that he plays through injuries for…”

But the Oilers are More Than Just McDavid

Beyond McDavid, many pointed to the overall growth of the Oilers’ team game. Their defensive structure has improved, their depth players have stepped up, and Stuart Skinner has rebounded in net. One executive noted that Edmonton is “playing a sounder defensive game in front of Skinner and cashing in on their high-danger chances.”

While the loss of Zach Hyman is a problem and a couple of voters said it might be too big an issue to overcome, multiple coaches suggested that this version of the Oilers is more resilient and complete. Players have stepped up before, and if there was ever a time to do so again, this is it.

This team is less emotional than in the past. So too, the lessons learned from last year’s heartbreak can be immeasurable. The Oilers have a home-ice advantage and some odd statistics on their side — including the fact that no team that has ever lost the first two games of its playoff run, then made the Cup Final, has ever lost.

The Oilers move the puck extremely well, have speed, elite scoring ability, and their goaltending has shown up.

Still, it’s close. Many coaches and execs still backed Florida, citing Sergei Bobrovsky, team depth, an aggressive forecheck, and playoff poise. They believe the Panthers have overwhelmed teams and could do the same to the Oilers.

But for the first time in two years, there’s a legitimate belief inside NHL circles that the Cup is Edmonton’s to win.

Next: Oilers’ Corey Perry Has No Plans to Retire, Wants Another Year