Edmonton Oilers
Who Blinks First?: 2026 UFA Market Set for Chain Reaction
Several big NHL stars are eligible for free agency in 2026, but no one wants to be the first to set the market.
The 2026 NHL UFA class is stacked with talent—and it may also mark a turning point in how elite players approach free agency. With the salary cap expected to rise by eight figures in the coming years, the buzz isn’t just about how much players will earn, but how long they’ll commit.
Connor McDavid headlines the class, and while most expect him to re-sign in Edmonton, the bigger question is: for how long? “The term should be the conversation,” said Sports 1440’s Jason Gregor. In this rising cap era, locking into an eight-year deal might not be the obvious choice. “I think McDavid will re-sign on a four-year deal… I do not see an eight-year deal in Edmonton,” added Sportsnet’s Mark Spector.
Honestly, unless his priority is playing with his friends and never leaving Edmonton, there’s no reason to lock in for eight more years.
While his status in the NHL is unique, McDavid’s decision could set the tone for others, including Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, and Kyle Connor—all potentially testing the market in 2026. Even legends like Alex Ovechkin, Anze Kopitar, and Evgeni Malkin are slated to become UFAs, adding to the intrigue.
Many top players are likely waiting for the first domino to fall. No one wants to miscalculate—either by setting the salary bar too low or locking into the wrong term length in a rapidly changing market.
Some Players Are Racing Against a Different Clock
Meanwhile, players like Oilers defenseman Jake Walman fall in a second tier of free agents. They are racing against a different clock.
Walman can sign an eight-year deal with Edmonton now, but once the new CBA kicks in, his maximum term drops to seven years with the Oilers and six elsewhere. He may want to do that, given that every season can impact what his contract looks like. A good one increases his value. An average or bad one makes him less likely to get a fantastic offer that sets him up for life.
Who falls where will be an interesting storyline to watch. How much does McDavid’s decision impact the other big names? And, of those big names, who has the confidence to make the first big free agency commitment with their own team?
Next: Oilers Among 6 Teams Who Could Face Major Overhaul After 2026
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