Trade or Double Down?: Oilers and Evander Kane’s Contract Year

As the Edmonton Oilers consider ways to improve their roster for next season, questions about who will stay and who will go will be a priority. Edmonton has limited options, given that many of its forwards have no-move clauses. One player who has some trade protection, but not enough to rule out a deal, is Evander Kane. That said, his situation is unique.

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Kane finds himself at the center of controversy on almost every team he has ever played for. While he’s been mostly a good soldier since joining the Oilers, this season, particularly in the Stanley Cup Final, he raised a few eyebrows.

The veteran winger, who had not played at all during the regular season, returned for the playoffs. He, like many of the depth forwards, didn’t pull their weight against the Panthers. Not only that, but recent reports are that he and the team are being looked at for LTIR violations — which may or may not have anything to do with Kane himself. There was also the fact he got kicked out of Game 6 and didn’t return for the handshake line when the Panthers won the Cup.

Maybe most of this isn’t a big deal. However, it might also be a sign that Kane has potentially worn out his welcome in Edmonton, and the Oilers are ready to move on.

The question becomes, is it better to move on or double down?

Kane, In a Contract Year, Could Be Quite Productive

According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Kane’s name was “definitely out there” at the trade deadline, and the Oilers are expected to explore trade options for him again this summer. He has a 16-team trade list as part of his contract, which gives Edmonton some flexibility. Friedman also suggested that there is a market for the forward.

Although his $5.125 million cap hit, injury history, and partial no-trade clause could complicate any potential deal, other teams are aware of what the Oilers know: when Kane is on, focused, and healthy, he’s extremely useful.

In other words, there’s a compelling hockey case to keep him.

The Oilers must now weigh whether it’s worth trying to extract one more productive season out of Kane in a contract year, when players often deliver their best. What seems obvious is that Kane is about cashing in when possible. There will be no better time to do so than next season, when he’s got a lot riding on being productive. And, as the Connor McDavid contract extension looms, it’s obvious the Oilers need to do everything they can to ice the best team next season.

What’s the better play for the Oilers? Is it time to cut bait and use the cap space elsewhere? If there is a market for Kane, should they move him and address other needs? Or is Kane set to post a 30-goal season and be a factor as the Oilers try to make the Final and get another chance to overcome that final hurdle that has continued to elude them?

Forwards like Mason Marchment, who recently fetched minimal return value in a trade from Dallas to Seattle, might be used as a comparable. There are factors to consider, such as salary, tax incentives and modified trade protection. Still, that deal sets a baseline, which means that the Oilers moving Kane would be little more than a cap dump trade.

With a narrow Cup window and a pressing need to optimize the roster, GM Stan Bowman and the Oilers front office face a high-stakes decision: cash out now, or gamble on Kane’s upside—warts and all.

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