Edmonton Oilers

The Hidden and Unspoken Impacts of the 4 Nations Face-Off

The 4 Nations Face-off will change the 2024–25 NHL regular season. What differences will the season see because the schedule is compressed?

by
Old Prof
February 6, 2025

The 4 Nations Face-Off is almost here. It’s good fun and great hockey (hopefully). However, will the event change the 2024-25 season? The answer is clearly Yes!

Over the past two weeks, I read two seemingly unrelated articles about this season. First, in an article in Florida Hockey Now, I read that with travel and extensive back-to-back games, Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice was frustrated with the schedule after losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Second, in an article in the Montreal Gazette last week titled, “Exhausted Canadiens need to hang on until the 4 Nations break,” columnist Jack Todd spoke to the plight of the Canadiens. Too many games in too few days have caused distress to two teams. It’s only likely that other teams will be impacted as well.

The 4 Nations Face-Off Is Changing the 2024-25 Season

What these two articles – one from Florida and the other from French Canada – have in common is that their NHL schedules have changed, and their teams have been impacted. For good or for bad, this season will be different because of the compressed schedule the teams are playing under. All teams face the same issues, so one would think that no team suffers specifically. That said, it’s tough to speculate for sure.

In this post, I want to look at the changes that playing a season with a compressed schedule might make to teams, players, and overall statistics. Logic tells me the season will be different in tangible ways.

The low-hanging fruit in any analysis around the NHL’s compressed schedule stemming from the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off would focus on team logistics, the problem of recovering from injuries, or generally from increased fatigue. However, several nuanced, less-discussed impacts could happen this season. Will scoring and point totals be down because players are more fatigued? How will goalies, skaters, and even the statistics that define a season change because of the ripple effects of the 4 Nations Face-Off?

Those NHL Changes That Are Right in Front of Our Faces

A compressed season means a higher number of back-to-back games. More games in fewer nights will impact how teams approach the grind in their schedules. Fewer days off means that players will play tired. Performance will drop, and injuries will rise. Coaches will be forced to adapt. The constant physical demands of these back-to-backs require teams to have more depth and flexibility in their lineups to avoid losing key players.

For goalies, this schedule poses a considerable change. Goalies will play fewer games. Backup goalies will play more. Even the hardiest goalies need a rest. Backup goalies will be used to ensure the team’s starting goalie doesn’t burn out. As teams balance fatigue and performance, they must use their goaltending depth effectively. Logic suggests frequent substitutions. The compressed season means that managing workloads, minimizing injuries, and finding ways to keep players fresh and uninjured will become key strategies for success.

The Toll on Goaltenders

One area that might see a significant shift is the play and health of NHL goalies. The workload intensifies with fewer days between games, meaning netminders like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Stuart Skinner, or Connor Hellebuyck will face more pressure. Goaltenders rely on intense focus and physical sharpness, and a compressed schedule could lead to streaky games. Will goals against rise and save percentage fall?

Stuart Skinner Andrei Vasilevskiy — Stuart Skinner and Andrei Vasilevskiy will play fewer games this season.

For netminders going to the 4 Nations tournament, the schedule is even more taxing. Not only are these goalies playing games with shorter rest, but they are also not getting time off to recuperate. If coaches try to play backups more often, are NHL teams making it harder to win games?

Fatigue might cause lapses in concentration, potentially causing lower save percentages and higher goals against averages. The overall reliability of goalies in high-stakes games will decrease. How will coaches adjust goalie rotations? Will there be an increased reliance on backups? Will the season see more goalies rising from the American Hockey League (AHL)?

What tactical shifts will coaches find necessary as they work through a grueling schedule? I’m guessing that the bottom line is that goalies will play fewer games. Furthermore, teams with the best backups have increased chances of winning.

Skaters and the Battle Against Burnout

For skaters, the compressed season is a double-edged sword. Players like Nathan MacKinnon or Auston Matthews, known for their explosive play, might be challenged to sustain peak play without recovery time between games. With more back-to-back games and fewer rest days, the risk of overuse injuries rises, along with a general dip in on-ice performance as fatigue sets in.

Such fatigue isn’t just physical. Mental exhaustion from constant high-intensity competition can lead to lapses in decision-making and reduced offensive output. Will coaches give more days off between games? Will there be fewer practices? Are practices going to be less intense because of the risk of injuries? What training adaptations, recovery schemes, and general strategies will teams employ to keep their star players healthy?

Shifts in Overall Statistics and Season Trends

Another aspect that is not getting enough attention is the potential for strange statistics. With a compressed schedule, the usual patterns in player statistics could shift dramatically. For instance, scoring rates could fluctuate as players’ energy levels vary more from game to game. This might lead to unexpected shifts in league leaders for points, goals, and assists.

Similarly, the impact on a team’s defense, often reflected in metrics like turnovers, high-danger chances, or goals against average, could be significant.

The Bottom Line Is That the Bottom Line Will Change

The impact of a compressed season will likely become more apparent only when it concludes. If the Montreal Canadiens, for example, fail to make the playoffs, it could be tempting to point to the toll of the back-to-backs and fatigue as contributing factors. In the same way, if a playoff-bound team loses a key player to injury, the compressed schedule and the resulting fatigue might make it harder for that team to make the playoffs. The Pittsburgh Penguins are in that spot right now, with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin out.

For someone like Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar (both in the top five for time on ice per game) how does a compressed schedule and no break impact their games? As is, Hughes might not even make it to the tournament; that’s how beat up he is.

While it’s impossible to say for sure right now, once the season is over, it will be worth evaluating how much the increased number of games and the need for deeper rosters affected teams’ performances in terms of success and injuries. The full impact of these changes will only be evident in hindsight.