Rising Salary Cap Brings Maple Leafs and Marner Contract Snag

News that the NHL’s salary cap is set to rise significantly over the next three seasons brings some cap certainty for teams. It also brings confidence to NHL free agents looking to capitalize on record revenues. For a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, they’ve got money, so affording players is not an issue. The issue is their own internal cap structure and the timing of an extension for star winger Mitch Marner.

The salary cap’s projected increases—rising from $88 million this season to $95.5 million in 2025-26 and potentially reaching $113.5 million by 2027-28—will impact Marner’s negotiations. Two Leafs writers wonder if it will lead to Marner demanding a contract higher than that of Auston Matthews, who makes $13.25 million annually per season.

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Did Mitch Marner Just Get A Whole Lot More Expensive?

Marner’s current contract carries an annual average value (AAV) of $10.9 million. He’s a pending UFA and is due for a raise. Prior to the cap estimates being released, there was talk about how much less he’d be willing to take than Matthews — the team’s star and highest-paid forward.

Jonas Siegel of The Athletic writes that with the cap expected to rise significantly, Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, could push for a similar—or even larger—percentage of the new cap. If Marner were to sign for 14% of the 2025-26 cap ($95.5 million), his AAV would reach $13.37 million, slightly exceeding Matthews’ contract.

Luke Fox of Sportsnet highlighted the challenges Toronto faces in making such a deal work:

“If Mitch Marner really wants to make more money than Auston Matthews, he should be able to. Doing so and remaining a Toronto Maple Leaf, however, is a more complicated proposition.”

Fox also noted that while Marner has yet to sign an extension despite being eligible for over seven months, his performance this season—on pace for a career-high 110 points—makes his case for a massive raise even stronger.

How Will the Maple Leafs Handle an Inevitable Marner Ask?

The Leafs have no issues comfortably spending to the cap ceiling. In most other circumstances, these cap increases would be great news for an organization like Toronto, which ranks right at the top in terms of franchise values. According to PuckPedia, Toronto is set to have $28.8 million in cap space for 2025-26, growing to $61.3 million by 2027-28. However, the team must also consider not ruffling feathers, while looking at extensions for key players like Matthew Knies and John Tavares.

Siegel writes that the Maple Leafs may be forced into a tough decision. He notes:

“…the approximate forecasting of the next three caps could add a wild-card element to Marner extension talks. In what way, if any, does Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, incorporate those projections into contract talks?”

Marner and his camp may also explore a shorter-term deal to maximize earnings when the cap hits its peak in 2027-28. That could further complicate negotiations for Leafs general manager Brad Treliving, who must decide whether to keep the team’s core intact or reshape the roster for a more balanced salary structure.

Should the Leafs Have Done This Deal Months Ago?

The Leafs’ financial outlook is improving thanks to the cap increases, but Marner’s next deal presents a pivotal challenge. The team might be looking back and kicking themselves for not getting this extension signed at the end of 2024.

A deal in the $12 million range would have looked pretty good today, considering where the cap is going to go. With Marner on pace for an MVP-caliber season, he’s worth that and more. And, if the Leafs wait until Mikko Rantanen signs (potentially with the Hurricanes before the end of the season), he becomes an immediate comparable. If he is inked to an eight-year, $14 million per season deal, there is no way Marner asks for much less.

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