Did a 2022 Blockbuster Trade Cost the Oilers Back-to-Back Stanley Cups?

An interesting social media thread about the three-year anniversary of a blockbuster trade has raised a fascinating speculative question. Thanks to a post by Frank Seravalli, which was meant to remind fans about “the trade that tilted hockey’s axis,” Edmonton Sports Talk’s Dustin Nielson asked: If the 2022 trade had never happened, would the Edmonton Oilers be two-time defending Stanley Cup champions?

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The blockbuster deal sent Matthew Tkachuk from the Calgary Flames to the Florida Panthers. Tkachuk has just posted a 100-point season and had no intention of signing a long-term deal with the Flames. They sent him to Florida in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Cole Schwindt, and a first-round pick.

The trade, initially viewed as a bold move for both sides, turned out to be a massive win for the Panthers.

Panthers Become a Dynasty After Tkachuk’s Arrival

Since acquiring Tkachuk, the Panthers have emerged as the most dominant team in the NHL. They went to a Final and lost, then went to two more and won the Cup both times. Most recently, they defeated the Oilers in 2024 and 2025 to capture their second straight title.

The question Neilsen poses is whether anyone could have beaten Edmonton if Florida was not in the equation.

That’s a tough one to answer. Tkachuk’s gritty, high-impact game has potentially become the face of their rise to dominance, but fans and analysts argue his presence is just another piece of the puzzle that was masterful roster construction. That team also has Sam Reinhart, who posted 104 points in 2023-24, and a deep defensive core led by Gustav Forsling. Not to mention, Sergei Bobrovsky’s Conn Smythe-winning performances might have been the real difference-maker.

Tkachuk Was Almost An Edmonton Oiler

“If the Oilers had just drafted Tkachuk instead of Jesse Puljujärvi, they’d have a Cup by now,” one fan posted. Interestingly, the Oilers almost did draft Tkachuk. In 2016, when the Columbus Blue Jackets went off the board and took Pierre-Luc Dubois, that left Puljujarvi for the Oilers. At the time, Puljujarvi has a highly-ranked prospect believed to have a much higher upside. Edmonton was shocked he fell to them, so they changed their draft strategy.

With only three teams in NHL history having lost consecutive Finals since 1968, Edmonton’s recent fate is rare—and painful. Whether the Tkachuk trade was the butterfly effect that changed the league’s balance, one thing is clear: the Panthers seized their moment.

The Oilers, meanwhile, are still chasing theirs.

Next: Oilers Coach Talks Early Impact of Signing and 2 Recent Trades