Rumored Evan Bouchard Mega Deal with Oilers May Be In Jeopardy

Evan Bouchard’s performance to start the 2024-25 season has sparked polarizing opinions, with some questioning whether he’s playing himself out of a rumored lucrative long-term extension. With seven points in 15 games, he’s producing, but not anywhere close to the level he was last season. And, because his value is largely measured by his point production, could that rumored $10 million per season eight-year deal be going away? Is Bouchard’s mega deal with the Oilers in jeopardy?

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Known for his elite offensive abilities, including a powerful shot and unbelievable poise, Bouchard’s defensive lapses this season have become a point of contention. Critics have highlighted his recent backchecking failure on a Jack Eichel breakaway, leading to comments from the 2 Mutts Podcast mocking his effort, calling it akin to a “public skate.” Every player has gaffes. Bouchard appears to have them more often than most.

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Interestingly, the numbers tell a different story. While his defensive play remains inconsistent, Bouchard’s overall underlying statistics suggest there is more to his game than what the eye test says. He currently allows the 15th least chances against out of 240 defensemen, a significant improvement from the previous seasons, where he ranked 34th and 105th. Some analysts argue that Bouchard’s defensive shortcomings are overstated, pointing out that even star players like Connor McDavid show occasional lapses. Kevin McCurdy defended Bouchard, asserting he’s a top-10 defenseman in the league, both offensively and defensively, urging fans to be patient with his development.

Is Bouchard’s $10M Extension at Risk with Oilers

The polarizing feelings towards Bouchard by the fan base in Edmonton somewhat ironically run parallel to his play this season. At times, he looks like an elite defenseman and his numbers tend to show he is. At other times, he looks disinterested and lazy. What is that worth in the NHL?

Kurt Leavins wrote in his 9 Things post on Sunday:

No shortage of venom for Evan Bouchard after a deficient performance against Las Vegas this week. Bouchard was directly responsible for two goals against. And to make matters worse, he was not beaten on 50-50 plays. That does not sit well in a blue-collar town like Edmonton that prides itself on hard work.”

Leavins does argue that some of that isn’t on Bouchard but on the Oilers’ blue-line issues overall. Bouchard is averaging 24:20 per night, more than four minutes per night more than his career-high average of 20:09. If he is being overused, that could explain some of his mistakes.

That doesn’t excuse everything. If the Oilers are about to give Bouchard $10 million per season, he needs to be able to manage 25 minutes a night without issue. Things will never be perfect, but the spotlight can’t shine on him every game for his highlights and lowlights.

The Oilers Need to Wait to Pay Bouchard

At the very least, Edmonton needs to know for certain they don’t have another Tyson Barrie on their hands — someone who gets a ton of points in Edmonton but isn’t a top producer on another team. As Bouchard enters his contract year, his performance—particularly his ability to contribute defensively—will be crucial in determining his worth.

And, if he keeps playing solid, but inconsistent hockey, he’s going to come in a lot cheaper than the rumored $10 million deal insiders had him pegged at following a record-breaking 2023-24 playoff performance.

And, if worse comes to worst and Bouchard finishes the season with half of the production he had last year, the two sides may be looking at a bridge deal. The Oilers will want to make sure they know what they have and Bouchard won’t likely want to sign away the next eight seasons if he believes he can bounce back in 2025-26.

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