Robertson, Leafs Set for Unnecessary Arbitration Battle Over $1M

With most NHL arbitration cases settling before reaching a hearing, the standoff between Nicholas Robertson and the Toronto Maple Leafs is out of the norm this summer. The two sides remain apart ahead of their scheduled arbitration hearing Sunday, with the Leafs filing at $1.2 million and Robertson seeking $2.25 million—a significant $1.05 million gap that doesn’t seem sufficient to warrant the drama that could result from a hearing.

The midpoint sits at $1.725 million, and based on comparable contracts, that figure may offer a reasonable benchmark for a potential award.

Last season, Robertson scored 15 goals in 69 games, ranking seventh on the Leafs, but added just seven assists. Despite seeing more ice time, his overall point pace dropped. Still, his physical game improved, logging a career-high 79 hits.

Because Robertson filed, the Leafs get to choose a one- or two-year term if it goes to a ruling. A one-year deal would keep options open, particularly if the team still views him as a trade candidate.

The Maple Leafs Shouldn’t Let It Get to a Hearing

This is not the same as the situation that unfolded between the Winnipeg Jets and Dylan Samberg. The Jets filed at $2.5M for the player, while he asked for $6 million. Eventually, the settlement came in at three years by $5.8 million.

The financial gap in this case hardly seems large enough to justify the risks of arbitration.

A ruling slightly above the midpoint—say, in the $1.9 million range—wouldn’t cripple the Leafs’ cap situation but could hurt (or worsen) their relationship with a still-developing 23-year-old. Hearings often involve teams pointing out a player’s flaws to argue against higher pay, something that can damage trust and morale, especially with a young forward trying to carve out a bigger role. A modest compromise now would avoid long-term strain. And, the Leafs should have no issues trading Robertson at anything below $2.25 million in a rising salary cap environment. Keep in mind, it won’t cost the Leafs that much to retain him.

Given the stakes, it’s a bit surprising this hasn’t been settled already.

Unless there’s a last-minute agreement, this could be one of the rare arbitration cases that actually goes the distance. It’s not clear why the Leafs are letting things get so close with a winger who could be useful, but has already felt disrespected by the organization on more than one occasion.

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