Rising Salary Cap Could Create Knies Offer Sheet Chaos for Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a major contract decision coming up with Matthew Knies, and recent news of the rapidly increasing salary cap only complicates matters. As Knies continues to establish himself as one of the rare breed of forwards in the league, and his stock continues to rise within the organization and around the NHL, Toronto must determine the best possible contract structure to secure his services and not put themselves in a financial bind. All the while, there will be a handful of teams looking at Knies as a possible offer sheet target.

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On the surface, the new cap projections provide the Maple Leafs with more cap flexibility. They have some of their key stars locked into solid deals, with others on high contracts that won’t look so painful in the coming years. But, what looks like a good situation to be in also brings some challenges.

Other teams will have the same cap flexibility, if not more, than Toronto. That could give teams will money and draft capital reasons to take risks they might not have taken before.

Knies is Going to Be An Attractive Option for Teams On an Offer Sheet Deal

The Maple Leafs face the threat of an offer sheet this summer when it comes to Knies. With more teams having cap space to maneuver, some may look to capitalize on the chance to acquire young talent through aggressive bids, following the blueprint of the St. Louis Blues, who successfully offer-sheeted Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg from the Edmonton Oilers. If the Leafs aren’t sure what Knies is worth, a difficult decision might be thrust upon them.

As Jonas Siegel of The Athletic writes:

“It’s his unique set of skills, some of which go beyond the scoresheet, that make his next contract difficult to forecast (and difficult for both the Leafs and Knies’ camp to settle on; Knies is set to become a restricted free agent this summer). There aren’t a lot of young power wingers with that level of upside and all-around ability to compare him to.”

That uncertainty could lead to teams taking the gamble that Knies could be, in the not-too-distant future, worth $9, maybe $10 million per season.

An offer sheet in the $6.87 million to $9.16 million range would require the signing team to surrender a first-, second-, and third-round draft pick in compensation. If a rival team were to offer Knies $8 million per season—above his current market value but potentially a steal in a few years—Toronto would face a difficult decision on whether to match.

The Other Decision Teams Would Force The Maple Leafs Into Making

This contract dilemma extends beyond Knies. The Leafs must also weigh how his potential deal affects future negotiations with stars like Mitch Marner and John Tavares. As the Blues did to the Oilers, Edmonton elected for cap flexibility and the understanding that by choosing not to match, they kept their ability to sign Connor McDavid to an extension as the top priority. Where does Knies fall in that conversation for Toronto?

As the cap rises, Toronto will have cap flexibility, but a team can certainly make things tight for the Maple Leafs if they force them into a $8 or $9 million decision on Knies. And, because of the rising cap, opposing teams can afford to get it wrong by a $1 – $2 million without much worry.

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