New NHL Salary Cap Estimates a Huge Win for Free Agents

The NHL salary cap estimates for the next three seasons are out, and it’s great news for teams with money and those strapped by the cap ceiling. Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the 2025-26 salary cap is expected to go to $95.5 million, followed by a huge leap in 2026-27 to $104 million and in 2027-28: $113.5 million. With a current cap ceiling of $88M, this is big news and as TSN’s Chris Johnson points out, “it’s a great time to be hitting free agency.”

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For a team like the Edmonton Oilers, that will give them just above $19 million in cap space for next summer. It will make signing Connor McDavid to a new deal a whole lot easier. When his new deal kicks in the Oilers will have $66 million in cap space, as per PuckPedia. If McDavid wants a percentage of the cap, it’s going to be expensive. If he wants to take $15 million and let the team build around him, the Oilers should have no trouble doing so. Meanwhile, what will the Oilers do with Evan Bouchard? Do they really want to kick the can down the road if he becomes an elite defenseman?

For the Toronto Maple Leafs, getting Mitch Marner and John Tavares signed to new deals shouldn’t be much of an issue, seeing as the team will have $28.7 million in cap space this summer. For them, the question will focus on whether they give Matthew Knies a bridge deal or a long-term deal, projecting his development before he becomes a UFA and the cap is $113 million.

The Dominos From This Will Be Massive for Certain Teams

These projections are going to be great news for some and awful news for others. Teams will good players locked into solid deals are happy as can be today. Teams who don’t have many contracts on the books or players who are due for extensions are sweating bullets or getting ready to spend.

Someone like Mikko Rantanen will almost surely want to see what the market offers now. He’ll be able to get decent money from a contender that was otherwise short on cap space or go to a team with tons of cap room and get a monster deal. It will all depend on his priorities.

For a team like the Chicago Blackhawks, who want to get better quickly and surround Connor Bedard with good players, GM Kyle Davidson will have around $35 million in cap space this summer.

What about in Detroit, where the team is on the edge of the playoff cut line every season. They’ll have $25 million in cap space this summer. Will the “Yzerplan” change?

Will the Calgary Flames completely drop the idea of a retool and go for it this season, knowing they have $37 million in projected cap space this offseason with 14 of 23 players signed?

Does this change what the Pittsburgh Penguins will do at the trade deadline?

Does this change how eager the Vancouver Canucks are to move one of J.T. Miller or Elias Pettersson? Will it affect which teams are open to adding Pettersson to their roster and taking on his cap hit? What about Brock Boeser? Will the Canucks pay him now or is he as likely to move on as some rumors suggested a week ago?

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