Trading One Star for 4 Contributors: Smart or Risky for the Leafs?

With Mitch Marner’s $10.9 million cap hit off the books, the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t chase another superstar. Instead, they used the savings to add several depth pieces — Matias Maccelli, Dakota Joshua, Nicolas Roy, and Michael Pezzetta. Instead of matching the $12 million (or paying more in a market without tax savings), the Leafs have $2.9 million in cap space to make additions.

The question now is simple: Are the Leafs better based on the sum of their replacement parts?

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Toronto’s current lineup has a much different look than it did just a month ago. Instead of relying heavily on Marner to drive the offense, the Leafs have reallocated his cap space across multiple lines, aiming for a more balanced mix that also includes skill and speed. Some believe the team isn’t as good. Others say there’s a compelling case to be made that the end results will benefit the organization.

Depth-wise, the team is now clearly stronger. Maccelli, Joshua, and Roy are expected to combine for over 100 points, and while that doesn’t replace Marner’s individual talent, it reshapes the lineup. It’s a bit of a Moneyball situation. In that film, Billy Beane says to his scouting staff, “Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.” It worked well for the Oakland Athletics. Can it work for the Maple Leafs?

If line one drops from an A to an A-, but line three improves from a C- to a C+, the net gain could be meaningful.

Another way of looking at this would be: If this were a trade with one team, and that team gave you all of the pieces Toronto now has for Marner, would the Maple Leafs have made the deal? It’s a pretty sizeable haul for one player.

What Else Can the Maple Leafs Do?

The benefit here is that Toronto might not be done. They have room to add now or at the trade deadline and if they trade David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok, GM Brad Treliving has the space to take another fairly big swing.

Of course, the wild card is Easton Cowan. The OHL MVP, Memorial Cup MVP, and record-breaking point getter might be ready to take a big step. Cowan could emerge as a top-six contributor on an entry-level deal. Perhaps he doesn’t get that opportunity if Marner remains on the roster.

Toronto may have lost the best player and not improved in raw star power, but they might be better overall.

Next: Reaves Denies Trade from Leafs Tied to Marner Comments