Forecasting Auston Matthews Season: How High Can He Go?

As part of their work, The Athletic created “interactive player cards” (subscription required) that show where each NHL player currently stands during this season. These NHL player cards offer a comprehensive overview of skaters in every division. They feature a Net Rating, which is an all-encompassing player value stat. They also showcase Offensive and Defensive Ratings based on on-ice factors like goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, and penalty differentials. As one might expect, I was curious to see how they would forecast Auston Matthews’ season.

These cards are quite amazing and help fans look at exactly where a player currently is at any course of the season. They are interactive because they provide an up-to-date detailed snapshot of a player’s current season performance, pro-rated to an 82-game scale. They also offer an end-of-season forecast based on weighted averages from the last three seasons, incorporating regression for more accurate projections.

Each card is updated every night after the NHL plays five or more games. As a result, these cards ensure users have the latest data.

Using These Data Cards to Track Auston Matthews’ Season

Using the interactive player card for Matthews, what does the up-to-date data set say? Where will Matthews land at the end of the season? The 26-year-old Toronto center is a force on the ice. He’s also having perhaps his best season ever – tearing up the NHL.

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Standing at 6-foot-3 and weighing 208 pounds, Matthews is a bigger player. He also gets significant ice time, averaging 21 minutes and 35 seconds per game. The Athletic’s data set puts his market value at $14.8 million and a salary of $11.6 million, Matthews provides a surplus value of $3.2 million, making him a plus-value asset for the team.

Analyzing Matthews’ Offensive and Defensive Ratings

Offensively, Matthews is a powerhouse. He boasts a current offensive rating of +21, forecasted to remain at +21, placing him in the 100th percentile. He’s the best of the best. His offensive contributions are exceptional.

He’s currently on pace to score 72 goals and register 37 assists (for a total of 109 points) on the season. His expected goals (xGoals) metrics are equally impressive. He plays with a high level of offensive efficiency.

Defensively, Matthews is no slouch. His current defensive rating of +1, which The Athletic‘s data set forecasts to rise to +2. That ranks him in the 87th percentile. He contributes to the team’s defense with 114 blocks and displays on-ice discipline. While he took his first penalty of the season in last night’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes, he’s forecast (given his history) to end up with only 17 penalty minutes. That impacts his positive offensive and defensive ratings.

Analyzing on-ice performance, Matthews is a key contributor to the team’s offensive output. His power-play skills are evident, and he’s expected to contribute 14 power-play goals by the season’s end. Defensively, he’s also strong in his new role on the team’s penalty kill. In that capacity, he’s limited opponents to zero on-ice goals against in his time on the penalty kill. In short, he plays a well-rounded game.

The Bottom Line for Matthews According to The Athletic‘s Player Cards

In summary, Matthews is a dominant force on both ends of the ice. He provides stellar offensive production and solid defensive contributions. If the player card is correct, by the end of the season Matthews will have scored 63 goals and 43 assists (for 106 points). That’s an incredible season.

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