Salary Cap Jump Sparks Fear Over Bedard’s Blackhawks Contract

With the NHL salary cap projected to rise significantly in the coming years, speculation has already begun about what Connor Bedard’s next contract with the Chicago Blackhawks might look like. Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus of The Athletic looked at what Bedard’s salary expectations might be, suggesting he could ask for as much as $13.5 million and $17 million annually.

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The NHL announced last week that the salary cap is expected to reach $104 million in the 2026-27 season—when Bedard’s second contract would take effect. It will take another huge jump to $113.5 million. Interestingly, insiders like Elliotte Friedman suggest these projections might be a bit low.

This substantial increase gives superstars like Bedard leverage to demand a contract that far exceeds what players will similar production have asked for in the past two or three seasons. Agents and teams often calculate value based on a percentage of the cap. If Bedard falls somewhere in the range of 13-15% of the cap ceiling — similar to top-tier players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews at the time of their extension — Bedard’s deal could be one of the highest in NHL history.

What Is Bedard Worth to the Blackhawks?

For Chicago, signing Bedard isn’t just about what he brings on the ice. It’s about his brand and what he means and will mean to the franchise.

McDavid, who signed his eight-year, $12.5 million-per-year extension in 2017, accounted for 15.72% of the cap at the time. When he signs an extension with the Oilers this coming July, Edmonton will be faced with a similar decision. The only difference is that he’s now been in the league for several seasons. Bedard is still growing and becoming the incredible star he’ll eventually be. The Blackhawks will undoubtedly want to lock him in long-term, but Bedard’s ceiling is a complete unknown.

Still, if Bedard follows a similar structure to when McDavid was in the same position, at 15% of the cap, he could push for a deal surpassing $15 million per season. If Chicago tries to use comparables like Jack Hughes or Mathew Barzal, who signed at approximately 10-11% of the cap ceiling, there’s a risk that Bedard balks.

What Happens If Bedard Opts For Something Shorter Term?

A key question will be whether Bedard opts for a long-term deal or follows a path set by Matthews. He signed a shorter-term contract to capitalize on future cap increases. With the new projections, Bedard can be confident he stands to make a whole lot more in the future.

Lazerus and Powers write:

“From that standpoint, Bedard can probably ask for anything he wants in his second contract, as long as his production keeps increasing through his third season. If Bedard wants to be within spitting distance of the highest-paid players in the game, he can probably force the Blackhawks’ hand into that.”

Does that mean the Blackhawks have to worry about a $16 or $17 million ask? Theoretically, yes. And, if they want to lock Bedard in for eight years, it might not be a stretch.

Both the player and the organization have to try and predict what Bedard will become, what he’ll be worth when the cap his $115 or $120 million per season and how much he means in terms of ticket sales, merchandise and everything else that brings in revenue for the club because he’s part of the team. Remember, this is a player who, at times, has been quite frustrated with the team. They need to first show him they’re serious about keeping him. Second, they need to build a winner around him.

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