Montreal Canadiens
What 3 NHL Players Excel at Creating High-Quality PGR Chances?
What three NHL players excel in creating high-quality scoring chances? The answer might surprise readers. It isn’t who you think.
Justin Bourne of Sportsnet takes a nuanced look at chance creation in the NHL using a stat called “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR). This metric goes beyond simple shot totals, focusing on the quality of the chances players generate. In his analysis, Bourne highlights three players—Matthew Knies, Brendan Gallagher, and Josh Norris—who excel at creating high-probability scoring (PGR) opportunities differently.
What Is Projected Goal Rate (PGR)?
Bourne explains that not all shots are created equal. For example, a backdoor tap-in has a far higher chance of scoring than a long-distance shot from the blue line. PGR measures which players consistently create shots more likely to result in goals, offering a clearer picture of offensive effectiveness.
As Bourne puts it: “If you create three shots in a game, and so do I, but yours are all backdoor tap-ins while mine are floated in from the blue line, yours are much more valuable.”
Player One: Matthew Knies Uses Smart Positioning and Physical Presence
Matthew Knies ranks among the NHL’s most effective players at generating high-quality PGR chances. According to Bourne, Knies thrives because of his intelligent positioning and physicality. Additionally, Knies plays with great linemates.
Playing alongside players like Mitch Marner allows Knies to capitalize on opportunities created by elite playmakers. His ability to anticipate where the puck will end up puts him in prime scoring areas. Knies also has strong net-front skills. He uses his size and awareness to dominate around the net. He finishes plays off rebounds and pucks off the endboards.
Player Two: Brendan Gallagher: Master of the High Tip
Brendan Gallagher, known for his gritty style, excels as a net-front presence. Bourne highlights two key aspects of Gallagher’s ability to create high-quality PGR chances. First, he engages in high tips. Gallagher’s precision with high redirections makes his tips especially dangerous, as they provide more time for the puck to change direction, catching goaltenders off guard.
Second, his crease play is excellent. Gallagher’s persistence in battling for position around the crease ensures he’s always in the right place to take advantage of scoring opportunities.
Player Three: Josh Norris: Shooting from Dangerous Areas
Unlike Knies and Gallagher, Josh Norris creates high-probability PGR chances by leveraging his shot and positioning off the rush. First, Norris’ off-the-rush scoring is excellent. He often positions himself where the puck can be delivered to him off the rush, catching goaltenders in motion and out of position.
Second, Norris is a backdoor threat. His ability to find soft spots in coverage and his teammates’ accurate passing allows him to maximize his scoring chances, making him a solid goal-producer for the Senators.
The Bottom Line: PGR Highlights Diverse Offensive Strengths
Bourne’s analysis underscores how different styles can lead to effective PGR chances in the NHL. Knies relies on positioning and physical play. Gallagher thrives on high tips and crease battles. And Norris excels at exploiting open space off the rush.
This breakdown of PGR highlights the diverse skill sets of these players and offers a glimpse into how teams can optimize their offensive strategies. Analytics like PGR are becoming more prominent. As a result, it’s clear that measuring shot quality—not just quantity—provides a richer understanding of player performance.
Could these insights influence how teams build their rosters and deploy their players? As PGR continues to gain traction, it might become a crucial tool for evaluating offensive contributions in the NHL.
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