The Oilers’ Best Strategy This Free Agency is Painfully Obvious

NHL free agency opens Wednesday, and the Edmonton Oilers are going to be looking to fill holes on their roster. If they’re successfully able to trade Darnell Nurse, they’ll have around $15 million cap space to spend with the need to find a goaltender, two defencemen and three forwards. Still, the Oilers would be wise to sit on their hands — at least for now.

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Every July 1, teams overspend. Desperate to make a splash, they overbid for mid-tier talent, handing out contracts that look ugly by August. This offseason is shaping up to be among the more ugly of free agency days, given the light crop of quality free agents. Several teams will compete for lackluster players and when these successful clubs look back, they’ll realize how big a mistake they made.

For a cap-conscious team like Edmonton, getting caught up in that frenzy would be a costly mistake.

The Oilers Need Another Roslovic Move or Two

The Oilers already have a blueprint for landing good talent for no money.

As Allan Mitchell of The Athletic points out, when Edmonton signed Jack Roslovic on October 8, he had been sitting in free agency for months. He’d been passed over while the market chased shinier names at inflated prices. The Oilers did try to sign him on day one of free agency, but Roslovic’s greed got the better of him and he said no. It wasn’t until the rest of the market bailed on him that Edmonton pounced at the right moment, landing a player in the middle of the team’s first regular-season game.

Roslovic went on to score 21 goals at a bargain rate. It was one of the shrewdest (even if somewhat accidental) moves of GM Stan Bowman’s tenure as the Oilers GM.

Even though the Oilers lucked into that deal, there’s a lesson to be learned there. Patience should become a yearly strategy for Edmonton. “The play for Bowman would be waiting for other teams to overspend on mid-level free agents,” Mitchell wrote. “At some point, the market will come back — it does every year — and Edmonton can take advantage.”

The Oilers Could Get a Good Goalie This Way

The logic is simple. When the frenzy dies down in late summer, quality players remain available at prices that actually reflect their value. Mitchell believes this is how the Oilers should land their goaltending upgrade. He writes:

“This is especially true with goaltenders. This season, free-agent goaltenders are everywhere, and there are several teams with three quality waiver-eligible goalies who will be looking to deal. Bowman shouldn’t spend a dime on a goaltender because the gap from worst to best isn’t large, and NHL teams have proven time and again they can’t predict who is about to have a strong season. The possible outcomes of high to low signings are massive and seemingly random.”

Mitchell suggests they should even take this strategy with their own guy. “If the Oilers wait until July 10 and sign Connor Ingram, it’s possible he will be the top-performing goaltender acquired in free agency this summer.”

This means not going after someone like Sergei Bobrovsky or Frederik Andersen. It means not overspending on a trade for Jordan Binnington.

Wait and Get Your Bargains Later

Roslovic proved that it works to wait. Even if the Oilers aren’t seen as the Cup contenders they once were, there’s still Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as a draw. Even if new head coach Mike Babcock makes some players hesitate, there is an appeal to the Oilers going down this road because they’re desperate to win and highly motivated.

Edmonton needs to resist the noise on July 1, let other teams overpay, and go bargain hunting when the dust settles. There will be players who welcome the chance to be part of what Edmonton is doing.

Next: Nurse Trade Stalled: Status Update as Limited List Creating Headaches for Bowman and Oilers