What Happens If… a Domino Effect of Problems Hits the Oilers

Every NHL season carries a few storylines that look manageable in isolation but become something else entirely if they start stacking on top of each other. That’s the premise behind our new series, What Happens If… — instead of predicting a single outcome, we take a handful of live, plausible scenarios around a team and trace what happens if they don’t stay isolated. One bad break is noise. Several bad breaks compounding at once is how a contender’s season actually falls apart.

Edmonton is the perfect team to start with.

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The Oilers Could Have Several Things Go Sideways

The Oilers are entering 2026-27 with almost no cushion — a new coach with a controversial track record, an unproven three-goalie system, and a superstar entering the first year of a two-year extension that could be shorter than anyone imagined. Individually, each of these is a storyline. Together, they’re a countdown clock to a total disaster.

Here’s how the dominoes could fall.

A) Babcock Oversteps Again.

Mike Babcock’s track record includes a rocky exit from the Toronto Maple Leafs and a tenure with the Columbus Blue Jackets that ended before it started. The issue was how he treated players, which for some reason, the Oilers seem to find attractive. It’s as though this group is aware they can’t push themselves, so they need someone who isn’t afraid to get in their faces.

That’s all good in theory, until he pushes too far. If old habits resurface in Edmonton’s room and this leadership group decides they don’t like the relationship they all signed up for, the fallout will be swift. The vocal, confident locker room of elite, opinionated stars will turn on the coach fast, forcing ownership into an awkward call. Knowing they asked for this, does everyone gut it out? Or, do the Oilers make a change nobody wanted to make this soon?

If it’s the latter, D.J. Smith quickly becomes the guy. He’s the somewhat overlooked safety net in all of this.

B) None of the Goaltenders Work

The three-headed system — Frederik Andersen, Devon Levi, and Tristan Jarry — is being built on hope, not certainty. If all three struggle simultaneously instead of one separating from the pack, Edmonton isn’t managing a goalie competition anymore; they’re managing a crisis.

There will be no internal fix beyond Connor Ungar or Matt Tomkins. The trade market won’t bail them out mid-season. The Oilers are betting that at least one of their goalies will excel. If they don’t, the season could be over before it starts.

C) McDavid Is Unhappy

There’s only so much McDavid can do or say given that he pushed for the Babcock hire. That doesn’t mean he’ll be pleased if things don’t pan out well. If he winds up unhappy and feels, internally, that he’s given what he can to the Oilers organization, it’s the domino that changes everything.

A shaky coach and unreliable goaltending compound fast, and if the Oilers look anything like last spring’s first-round exit, McDavid doesn’t wait for the deadline — friends in the game have already floated a Christmas trade request as the nightmare scenario.

D) Darnell Nurse Becomes an All-Star in San Jose.

Edmonton already made its bet by trading Darnell Nurse to the San Jose Sharks for Shakir Mukhamadullin and the rights to Zachary Sharp. They turned around and replaced him with Ryan Shea on a five-year, $4M AAV deal. It’s one thing if this new Oilers group plays incredibly well. If that happens, it won’t really matter what Nurse does.

But, if Nurse rebounds in a fresh system, while Shea and Mukhamadullin fail to replace his minutes, it makes Edmonton’s decision to subtract him from the lineup a mistake. All the while, his close friends in McDavid and Draisaitl will be looking at management with judgmental eyes.

One domino on its own is survivable. All four together, and Edmonton’s championship window doesn’t close — it collapses.

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Oilers, Maple Leafs & Red Wings Larkin’s Spat