Should the Oilers Lock Up Matt Savoie Now? The Perfetti Comparison Provides an Answer

Matt Savoie just finished a rookie season that mirrors, almost point for point, the platform year that led the Winnipeg Jets to their new deal with Cole Perfetti. Savoie put up 37 points in 82 games as a 22-year-old, playing a depth role, plus some top-line minutes next to Connor McDavid. Perfetti posted 38 points in 71 games at almost the identical age. Naturally, the question in Edmonton is whether Savoie deserves the term-and-money version of what Perfetti just got: five years at $6 million per year.

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Given the way the market is changing for RFAs, there’s an argument to be made that the Oilers should lock up Savoie as soon as possible. Here’s the problem: Winnipeg didn’t actually pay that price off of Perfetti’s rookie-comparable season. They first paid for a two-year bridge deal at $3.25 million. The five-year, $30 million extension only arrived three years later, after Perfetti banked a 50-point breakout in 2024-25. He had a down season in 2025-26, but there was still enough evidence to suggest this is a player capable of high-end production.

Winnipeg is taking a bit of a risk, but not a massive one. Would the Oilers be better off finding out just what Savoie is first? Or, do they take a leap of faith that investing in him now will pay off down the road?

What Should the Oilers Do With Savoie?

If you’re the Oilers, do you run the Perfetti playbook exactly, and hand Savoie a shorter bridge now while you gather another year or two of evidence? Or do you skip that step entirely and pay term money today? Edmonton would essentially be betting that Savoie’s usage — top-line minutes, penalty-kill workhorse duty, five power-play goals as a rookie — is a strong enough signal on its own to justify the risk Winnipeg wasn’t willing to take until year three?

There’s a case for paying early. Cap certainty has value, especially for a team with McDavid and Draisaitl money already locked in (though McDavid is locked in for only two more seasons). If Savoie keeps climbing, $5 million looks like a bargain in two years.

The Jets waited through a full extra contract cycle — including a bad year — before deciding to pay the player. They still go him on a fairly reasonable deal. But the Leo Carlsson offer sheet has changed everything. Numbers are skyrocketing faster than anyone might have anticipated. Signing Savoie to a longer-term contract after one season means taking a risk. Those risks don’t always pay off.

Next: Jets Take Risk with Cole Perfetti, Locking Him Up on a 5-Year Deal