Penguins Give Long-Term, Head-Scratching Deal to Ville Koivunen

The Pittsburgh Penguins have re-signed restricted free agent forward Ville Koivunen to an eight-year contract. The 23-year-old had seven points in 39 games played this season in the NHL as well as 41 points in 34 games in the AHL in 2025-26. It seems like a big bet for a player with such a small sample size.

Fans and analysts are asking the same question right now. Why? For example, Jesse Marshall of The Athletic writes, “I certainly haven’t given up on Koivunen. It would be stupid to do so. It is way, way too early for that. At the same time, there are undeniable red flags that have come up in his development. If those red flags continue, the term doesn’t make any sense to me at all.”

The Penguins have re-signed restricted free agent forward Ville Koivunen to an eight-year contract.

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) August 6, 2026

Locking in such an inexperienced player after a not-so-great season is a pretty specific type of bet. GMs make similar bets, trying to find a home run signing that pans out to be great value. There are reasons for concern here.

Why the Bet By Dubas and the Penguins?

With this deal, Dubas is buying pre-arbitration and prime UFA years in bulk, and potentially on the cheap. Koivunen was a 2021 second-round pick Pittsburgh acquired in the Jake Guentzel trade, and put up a strong 56-point season in Finland’s Liiga before crossing over. The Penguins obviously liked something they saw, but his first real NHL look was inconsistent.

This is a player with legitimate offensive tools whose NHL production hasn’t caught up yet. The hope must be that he figures it out, and when he does, the Penguins are already ahead of the jump. Instead of paying for a two-year bridge and negotiating again from a position of less leverage, Pittsburgh locks in eight years now.

While it’s a risk, term is the whole point of this deal. An eight-year deal at $4 million buys out Koivunen’s remaining RFA years and several UFA years in one shot. It’s also the last real shot the Penguins have to sign that eighth year before the NHL changes the max to seven, spreading out his cap hit even further. If he becomes even a solid middle-six scorer, $4 million is a bargain against a rising cap. If he becomes a top-line piece, it’s a massive bargain.

What Could Go Wrong With This Deal?

The downside here is that the Penguins might have just purchased eight years of a dud prospect. If he plateaus as a fringe NHLer, $4 million isn’t a crippling number to carry, but it’s not ideal.

The NHL cap is rising significantly over the next several years. If the Penguins have to, they can eat this contract or be patient in the hope that, at some point, Koivunen turns on the boosters. Pittsburgh has time to gamble here. They are not in a pure rebuild, but this is not a win-now roster either. Signing young, cheap, long-term pieces like Koivunen is part of how teams like Carolina and Montreal build competitive rosters that are known for having great contracts. The difference here might be that there’s no real indication that Koivunen will amount to much.

If Koivunen never becomes more than a fourth-liner, Pittsburgh is stuck carrying a bad contract on a player who won’t be easy to move for eight years.

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Canadiens, Maple Leafs & Oilers Have No Room