3 Big Decisions Oilers Face Following NHL’s Salary Cap Estimates

With news that the NHL salary cap is going to jump in a major way in each of the next three seasons, every team is going to face some big decisions. For the Edmonton Oilers, they have the best player in the world coming due for an extension at a time when the salary cap ceiling takes a $8.5 million jump ($16 million from what it is today). How will that affect what they do? And what other big decisions will the team face as the cap ceiling crosses $113 million and climbs even higher?

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When, How Much, and How Long to Sign McDavid For?

The decision to try and extend Connor McDavid is a no-brainer. Frankly, the Oilers will likely ask him what he wants and just give it to him. The question will be, how badly does McDavid want to build a good team around him, when does he want to extend, and how do both sides project fair value?

Timing might be the key factor in the McDavid deal. He can sign as early as July 1, 2025. If he takes 15% of the cap, he’ll be looking at $14.3 million per season. That’s a steal, and he’ll likely want more, considering the jump projected over the next two seasons. 15% of the cap in 2026 would mean an extra $1.3 million per season over eight years ($10.4 million). If he signs early, he potentially leaves a lot of money on the table. If he wants up to the max of 20% of the cap, it’s going to get expensive.

Remember, McDavid wants to win and build a solid team around him. But, if the cap continues to rise by $8-$10 million each season, by year five of his new deal, the ceiling could be well in excess of $140 million. That would mean a $15 million per season deal is 10% of the cap. He might be better off signing a four-year extension and testing free agency again when he’s still in his early 30s.

The Oilers would be best served to give him eight years this July 1 and hope he takes a reasonable number.

How Long to Sign Bouchard For

Whatever deal Evan Bouchard gets, it’s going to be polarizing. This is a player beloved and respected by some and criticized (sometimes unfairly) by many. There is no doubt he’s a top-tier defenseman, and he’s getting a healthy raise. But, what is he worth, and when do you give it to him?

Bridging Bouchard gives the Oilers other free agency options and time to ensure he’s genuinely an elite defenseman who isn’t one-dimensional. But if he proves to be extremely capable on both sides of the puck, the ridiculous amount of money he’ll be worth in two or three seasons will make plenty of stomachs turn.

If Bouchard is anywhere near a $9-$10 million defenseman now, what will he be worth when the cap is well over $100 million? But if the Oilers lock him in the summer and give him the eight years now, they’re committed. You can guarantee he’ll want a no-trade, no-move clause worked in.

Which Free Agents To Chase?

The window to win for the Oilers is now. In a couple of seasons, every team that can afford to spend money will. As the Oilers’ window to win closes, it opens wide for other teams with young talent getting better and money to burn. With a few signings here and a smart trade or two there, teams that aren’t contenders now will be.

That could include clubs like Chicago or Montreal. Everyone knows the Vegas Golden Knights and Toronto Maple Leafs will spend every dollar they can. The question for the Oilers becomes which free agents to chase and when.

Does Edmonton look at big fish this summer and try to get in names like Mikko Rantanen? It would be a risk to pay so many top players big money, but it’s not so painful if you buy at the right time and the cap is $113 million. Or, do the Oilers give themselves cap flexibility and room to buy during the next few seasons when teams are offloading talent in anticipation of going big after names like Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Jack Eichel, and others?

Figuring out a game plan and predicting how other teams spend their money might be the key to success over the next few years. This new money will tempt teams to go bananas. Do the Oilers push all in, too? Or, do they let other teams make mistakes and pick up the scraps who turn out to be really solid additions?

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