Carolina Hurricanes

Who’s Going to Win the Conn Smythe Trophy?

Conn Smythe race is taking shape: Marner leads if Vegas rallies, while Carolina’s Staal is a workhorse who gains ground if the Canes win.

by
Old Prof
June 10, 2026

As the Stanley Cup Final drifts toward a likely Game 6 — maybe even Game 7 — the Conn Smythe picture is starting to come into focus. It’s pretty simple: if the Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, the trophy will probably go to the player who drove that comeback. That’s Mitch Marner. If the Carolina Hurricanes finish it off, it’ll likely land with the guy who’s been grinding the Canes forward all spring. That’s Jordan Staal.

Mitch Marner Is the Odds-On Favourite if Vegas Wins

If Vegas pulls off the rally, the story basically writes itself. Playoff hardware usually follows the champs, and the flashiest, most clutch moments in a comeback stick in voters’ heads. So whoever gives Vegas those giant, pressure-packed plays becomes the obvious pick. That’s been Marner more than anyone else on the team.

If Carolina closes it out, the mood shifts to steady work over highlight reels. The Canes are built on structure and depth, and their best players show up every night, even if they’re not always on the scoresheet. Right now, that’s Jordan Staal. That’s the kind of season-long, playoff-long grind that voters respect. Staal is the guy who did the heavy lifting round after round.

If the Cup Final Gets to Game 7, Then Who Knows?

A Game 7 muddies things a bit. The longer the series goes, the more voters look at the whole playoff body of work instead of one or two electric games. If it hits seven games, expect those who vote to reward whoever’s been consistently dominant across multiple rounds, not just someone who popped off in the last few showy moments. Again, that seems like Marner.

It’s true that a player on the losing side can win the Smythe. It’s happened. But it’s rare and requires a truly exceptional, across-the-playoffs performance. Again, if anyone has a chance, it’s Marner.

For now, the clean holds. If Vegas completes the comeback, the Conn Smythe likely follows the player who drove it. If Carolina closes things out, expect the award to go to the Hurricanes’ engine. If it goes seven, voters will favour durability and impact over a couple of late-game fireworks.