Who Blinks First? Inside the Hughes–Makar Contract Freeze Gripping the NHL

The top contract in the NHL right now sits at $18.8 million AAV — Macklin Celebrini’s monster deal that reset the market the moment ink hit paper. Two more deals are coming that could blow past it, and the league is stuck in a holding pattern waiting to see which superstar blinks first.

Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar aren’t just elite defencemen — they’re arguably the two best in the world at the position. They run powerplays, drive offence, tilt the ice, and elevate every teammate around them. They’re the faces on defence of Team USA and Team Canada. And now, both are eligible for extensions. Both know they’re about to redefine the top of the market. Both are watching the other.

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Contracts

The question hanging over the league is simple: who signs for more?

Hughes and Makar could easily land identical term and identical dollars, and nobody would argue. They’re that close in value. They’re that close in impact. And both have every reason to want the crown as the highest‑paid player in the NHL.

Makar put up 79 points in 75 games last season. Hughes posted 76 in 74 split between Vancouver and Minnesota. Their production is basically a mirror. Their playstyles are similar. One shoots right, one shoots left. The separation is razor‑thin.

The real difference might be situational.

Makar is a year older and has spent his entire career in Colorado. He’s comfortable and committed. He’s already won. If anyone is taking a slight haircut to keep a contender together, it’s him.

Hughes is in a completely different spot. He just forced his way out of Vancouver after serving as captain, landed in Minnesota, and all signs point to him eventually wanting to join his brothers in New Jersey. That creates a different kind of leverage — and a different kind of motivation. Hughes might chase maximum AAV on a shorter deal, line it up with Jack Hughes’ contract, and walk straight into the Devils’ core when the timing is right.

Waiting Game

On the latest 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman summed up the stalemate with one line:

“Part of me has wondered if maybe they’re looking to see who will go first.”

That’s exactly what this feels like — a Texas hold ’em stare‑down between two franchise pillars. The moment one signs, the other’s deal will fall into place almost immediately.

Makar is the more likely candidate to take the full eight‑year max, but that window closes on September 15, 2026. Three weeks left. If Colorado wants term, the clock is ticking. The rising cap complicates everything — players have been avoiding long deals because every year the ceiling jumps. That alone might push both Hughes and Makar toward shorter, high‑octane contracts.

Setting the Market

Whoever signs first sets the bar — not just for defencemen, but for the entire league.

Hughes and Makar operate in their own tier. They’re the modern blueprint for elite blueliners: pace, transition, creation, control. Their next contracts won’t just define what top defencemen get paid. They’ll define what superstars get paid.

And that’s why the stalemate matters. The moment one of them commits, the ripple effect hits every front office in the league. Agents will point to it. GMs will have to adjust their internal valuations. Every elite player — forwards included — will suddenly have a new benchmark to chase. Celebrini’s $18.8M becomes either the floor or the cautionary tale, depending on how high Hughes or Makar push the ceiling.

This is the rare negotiation that doesn’t just shape two franchises — it shapes the entire economic landscape of the NHL. Cap planning, roster construction, long‑term windows, superstar retention… all of it hangs in the balance.

Until one of them makes a move, the league is frozen. Everyone is waiting for the number that resets the market again.

Next: Devils Lurking, Wild Waiting: Friedman Says Hughes Talks Stalled