Could Untimely Injuries for the Oilers Affect a McDavid Extension?

The fact that the Edmonton Oilers are dropping like flies is not good for their short-term playoff outlook. Unfortunately, it might also be bad news when it comes to the long-term prospect of hanging onto superstar Connor McDavid. McDavid has nine points in three games since returning, and he’s arguably carrying the Oilers. If McDavid chose not to sign an extension, it would be devastating for the organization.

On one hand, McDavid has to understand that if the Oilers don’t advance far in the playoffs this season, it will be due, in part, to bad luck. So many key guys went down with wild injuries in the final games of the season (including himself for 8 games), and it is not anyone’s fault. It happens. It couldn’t have been avoided.

---

---

At the same time, if the Oilers don’t advance past the first or second round this season, some of that will be on management. The Oilers were one win away from the Stanley Cup in 2024, and Edmonton decided they needed to change over a good chunk of the roster. They got slower and older, essentially because they got greedy. Players were willing to sign in Edmonton, so Jeff Jackson signed them, choosing not to leave room for names like Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Cody Ceci. He gave nearly everyone no-move clauses and handcuffed new GM Stan Bowman, who did an admirable job at the deadline, but might have missed on a couple of gambles.

What are the Oilers Doing?

With this season and the next remaining on his contract, McDavid will have a big decision to make on or around July 1 this summer. Does he stay long-term with the Oilers, accepting what will likely be the richest contract in the history of the NHL? Or does he test the market in 2026? If the Oilers get only a fraction of the distance to the Final that they did last season, that could impact his decision.

The Oilers’ window to win is still wide open, and Leon Draisaitl (his best friend) has committed to Edmonton for the long haul. That said, what management has done with the team feels like a club heading in the wrong direction. The players they signed are finally starting to contribute, but what happens when these players are pushed back down into their regular spots?

At the same time, the Oilers have been busy over the past few days, signing prospects and draftees out of the NCAA and Europe. Is that enough to give McDavid hope for the future?

It is not ideal that Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Jake Walman, Trent Frederic, and Draisaitl are all currently out. Some of that isn’t on the Oilers. However, a case could be made that the Frederic trade was a mistake, and the other pieces that left this past off-season could have remained with the Oilers if the team had taken a different approach to spending money.

McDavid Likely Signs Extension with the Oilers

A run in this year’s playoffs should erase any real concern. Should the Oilers get back to better health and win, McDavid extending will be a lock. An early and embarrassing exit could create doubt.

Despite what could be an early exit as the Oilers take on an improved LA Kings team in Round 1, Edmonton is still a contender. They’ve won three in a row and are beating some of the NHL’s better teams with a depleted roster. The Oilers might not be a favorite, but does anyone really want to bet against a team that still has McDavid and Draisaitl? Both should be good to go in Game 1.

So too, as long as those two are on the team, does McDavid really see much of a reason to try his luck elsewhere?

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Oilers, Jets, Rangers, Wild