Only Two Ways the Makar Deal Ends Up, and One Starts a Chain Reaction

As the Colorado Avalanche close in on a contract extension for Cale Makar, one insider is framing the negotiation in a way that makes this imminent deal fascinating: the Makar extension is about to change the NHL landscape for elite defensemen. Even though Makar is a bit of a unicorn, when his deal makes a splash, the ripples from the extension will be felt by several other teams and a number of other players.

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This will go one of two ways, and one of them is actually quite intriguing for any defenseman using his deal as a comparable. A real chain reaction could go down here.

Adrian Hernandez of Mile High Hockey laid it out as follows: “If the Makar contract is for 8 years, prepare yourself for a historically large AAV and incentives package/front loaded structure. If the above isn’t true, it will be one of the most team-friendly contracts ever.”

Related: Avalanche and Cale Makar Closing in on “Biggie” Contract Extension

In other words, Makar could make so much money, and quickly, that every big-name defenseman will up their ask. Or, he’s about to take such a sweetheart deal that every elite blueliner will have to reconsider their position. Many won’t want to, and that could put them in an awkward spot among their respective fan base.

Granted, someone like Quinn Hughes may not care. Many believe he’s ultimately leaving the Minnesota Wild anyway. While Elliotte Friedman suggested recently that Hughes and Makar might have been waiting for the other to make the first move, there was still a sense that Hughes has his term in mind and isn’t wavering. If he gets what he wants in Minny, great. If he doesn’t, it almost feels like the writing is on the wall that he ends up in New Jersey or somewhere else with his brothers.

Jonny Lazarus writes, “I could see Cale wanting to line up his contract with MacKinnon’s, so I’m guessing 4 x $18.5M. Sign short-term, avoid getting stuck as the cap keeps rising and leave himself in a position to cash in on another big deal.” If he does that, Hughes will feel completely justified aligning his deal with Jack.

Makar Could Sign the Biggest Deal in NHL History

What if Colorado backs up the truck for eight years and structures the deal aggressively to make the cap math work now? Teams that thought the Leo Carlsson contract made an impact will certainly feel the Makar deal.

While term is still available at the maximum allowed under the outgoing CBA — if Makar accepts that deal, he could make over $20 million per season. That will impact Hughes and Werenski, and even guys like Evan Bouchard in a couple of seasons. Conversely, something shorter, and on a deal for much less than what he could otherwise command, might put pressure on comparable defensemen. A club-friendly contract could set a league-wide standard among the best of the best.

Other NHL clubs can only cross their fingers and hope Makar chooses the latter.

Even if this isn’t about AAV or term, it could be about deal structure. Marco D’Amico writes, “The two biggest monetary incentives the Avalanche have at their disposal is being able to include over 60% of the total Makar extension in signing bonuses.” Anyone else looking to sign before the September deadline may want the same.

What Will Makar Choose To Do?

The looming Sept. 15/16 deadline is central to why this fork exists. Once the new CBA rules kick in, extensions for a team’s own players cap out at seven years instead of eight — which is part of why insiders like Elliotte Friedman have suggested Colorado wants this wrapped up before then.

If Makar and the Avalanche use that eight-year runway, expect the structure to lean heavily on signing bonuses and front-loaded money. But if Makar signs shorter — five or six years (maybe even three), as has been speculated — it changes things. A shorter term at a high AAV is still a raise, but relative to what a two-time Norris winner in his prime could otherwise command over eight years.

Other teams and players might have to adjust their thinking, and that won’t sit well.

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