Oilers Might Be Immune to the NHL’s Biggest New Problems

According to Edmonton Journal columnist David Staples, the Edmonton Oilers may be uniquely positioned to avoid two forces currently shaking up the rest of the league (especially Canadian teams). That is, at least for now. As teams deal with rising salaries for young players and U.S.-Born athletes looking to go back home, the Oilers are in a position where neither trend will have much impact on their roster.

---

Players Fleeing to the United States

The first trend (U.S.-born players pushing to leave Canadian markets) has seen several big names ask for trades this summer. Among them, Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Larkin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Zach Werenski (although he pivoted back). It’s not just that players want to go from Canadian markets to U.S. ones, but some are looking to leave high-tax American states for lower-tax destinations like Texas, Nevada, and Florida.

Staples points to Larkin’s trade request in Detroit and rumblings from Werenski in Columbus as recent examples of players looking for better climates or financial situations. Alberta, however, benefits from the lowest provincial tax rate in the country and no provincial sales tax, giving Edmonton a buffer that teams like Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa don’t have.

RFAs Are Getting Big Money

The second trend involves the sudden spike in what young restricted free agents are commanding on their second contracts. Big deals have come across the board for Leo Carlsson, Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Zeev Buium, and pretty soon, Cutter Gauthier. Philadelphia’s offer sheet for Leo Carlsson drove most of this. Staples cites Buium’s new deal with Vancouver — 8.2 percent of the cap despite modest production — as a sign the market has shifted dramatically for rebuilding teams. Since Edmonton isn’t accumulating high-end RFAs, this trend largely bypasses them too.

Because the Oilers aren’t rebuilding, and because there are minor tax incentives to play in Alberta, the Oilers are in a good spot.

Staples digs more into the blue states versus the red ones, which is a conversation we’ll avoid. That said, his point is taken. Some players have social and political beliefs that align better with some states than others. That’s a factor. For the Oilers, it likely won’t be much of one. Their only U.S.-born players are Trent Frederic, Connor Murphy, Ryan Shea, Spencer Statsney, Ty Emberson, and Isaac Howard. Credit to all of them for making the NHL, but none are stars who, if they asked out, would drastically alter how the team is constructed. None have a resume that would disrupt the market.

As for RFAs the Oilers have to worry about? Matt Savoie, Josh Samanski, and Devon Levi are it. Three players, none of whom are likely to have explosive seasons. All have upside, and all could have strong years that give the Oilers a reason to invest in each longer term, but none are about to make the kind of money being paid out this offseason.

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Friedman, Senators & Oilers Bottom Six