McKenna Scored His First Goal in Game 4 & That Really Tells Us?

So Gavin McKenna finally got his first NHL goal, and naturally, everyone’s already trying to figure out what it means for his career. Here’s the fun part: it actually tells us almost nothing.

Turns out, how fast a No. 1 overall pick scores their first goal is basically meaningless trivia dressed up as destiny. Look at the list. Alex Ovechkin, John Tavares, and Auston Matthews all scored in their very first NHL game. Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid needed three. McKenna’s four-game wait actually puts him ahead of Nathan MacKinnon, who took five. Jack Hughes and Taylor Hall both needed eight games. Steven Stamkos took nine.

And on the flip side, Nail Yakupov scored in game two, and that obviously didn’t translate into the long, dominant career everyone expected.

The image below shows how quickly first-overall draft picks scored their first goals.

The Takeaway for 1st-Overall Draft Picks Is That It Barely Matte

That’s the real takeaway here. A quick first goal doesn’t guarantee stardom, and a slow start doesn’t doom a career either. McDavid and Yakupov basically bookend that point perfectly. McDavid took three games, and Yakupov took two, and their careers went in completely opposite directions. The number of games it takes depends on a bunch of stuff that has nothing to do with raw talent: linemates, role, opportunity, and honestly, a bit of plain luck.

For Maple Leafs fans, though, this goal still matters, just not as some kind of scouting verdict. It matters because McKenna got the pressure of his first one out of the way. But he scored his first goal in a dramatic, come-from-behind win, making it an even better story to look back on. That’s a lot more fun than sitting around after three scoreless games trying to turn a slow start into some big referendum on an 18-year-old who’s barely played a handful of NHL games.

So, Does This Mean That McKenna Is Off and Running Now?

So no, this doesn’t mean McKenna’s the next Matthews, and it doesn’t mean he’s falling behind McDavid either. A first goal is just a first goal. The real questions—can he keep creating chances, can he handle the pace and physicality of this league, can he turn flashes of skill into consistent production—those all get answered over months and years, not four games.

For now, Maple Leafs fans can just enjoy the moment. McKenna earned it, the city got to celebrate it, and honestly, that’s plenty for one Tuesday night. Give the young player more than four games before deciding what any of this actually means.

Related: Gavin McKenna Takes Friendly Jab at Family Following Big Night