Fans Predict McDavid’s 2026-27 Point Total, And It’s Not What You Think

Connor McDavid enters the 2026-27 season, ready to start the most recent contract he signed: a two-year, $25 million deal to stay in Edmonton. The Edmonton Oilers need him to be the McDavid he’s always been, but find a new way to lead the team to the Stanley Cup Final, this time winning the league’s ultimate prize. But a new fan survey from The Athletic suggests expectations for his scoring output include a step back.

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When asked how many points McDavid will score this coming season, only 35.6 percent of respondents believe he will reach the 130-point mark. It’s a threshold he’s cleared in three of his last four full seasons.

Instead, the largest share of fans predict he’ll land somewhere in the 120s, a modest step back from where he’s been the past few years. Why the drop-off? Interestingly, it’s intentional. New coach Mike Babcock, who fans suspect could lean on McDavid to buy in more on the defensive side of the puck, might aim to lighten the workload for McDavid a little. If Babcock can get other players involved in the offense, it’s a win overall. For McDavid, he could care less about his individual stats if it means a championship.

No one is suggesting McDavid will be less effective. Fans aren’t suggesting he will disappear offensively either. 120 points is still incredible, and statistically, it would put him in top company at the end of the season. Maybe he won’t win the Art Ross or Rocket Richard Trophy. No Art Ross means not being in second place all-time in that category, trailing only Wayne Gretzky. Again, he won’t care if winning becomes the reason.

And If Fewer McDavid Points Doesn’t Work?

The survey also touched on a more sensitive subject: how long McDavid stays in Edmonton. While most fans say they’re at least somewhat confident their franchise center will stick around beyond his current contract, the numbers suggest the uncertainty isn’t nothing. With his competitive nature well documented, another first-round playoff exit likely won’t cut it if the Oilers want to keep him satisfied long-term.

If he takes a back seat individually and that doesn’t bring better results for the team, it will be intriguing to see where conversations lead.

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