Oilers May Be Forced to React to Nugent-Hopkins Troubling Trend

Paul Pidutti of Daily Faceoff has listed Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on a grim list of players who are seeing a stark decline in their production because of something beyond their control. Arguing that “father time” is catching up to a handful of NHLers, Nugent-Hopkins ranks right near the top of the list, with his point pace plummeting from years past.

Pidutti writes of Nugent-Hopkins’ future in the NHL:

He’s on the wrong side of 30 and struggling in his minutes away from McDavid. Father Time assigns three months probation to get his game in order quickly — or face the same sentencing guidelines as teammate Jeff Skinner.

Essentially, the argument is that if Nugent-Hopkins can’t find a way to produce and start upping his game, he could face the same fate as Skinner — who can’t seem to get a solid look by head coach Kris Knoblauch and despite his history of offense on the power play and in other key situations, he won’t see the ice in those situations to make the most of them.

It’s Been a Slower Couple of Seasons for Nugent-Hopkins

Noting he’s on pace for just 12 goals and 41 points, Nugent-Hopkins has hit a rough patch offensively. And, this isn’t the first season it’s happened. Once a consistent scoring threat, his production has dipped alarmingly, with his current pace a far cry from the 104 points he posted in 2022-23. In 2023-24 he dropped to 67 points in the regular season, but he had a good run in the playoffs (22 points in 25 games) which left some thinking he still had top-star level production in him.

But, again this season, he’s slipping. The concerning part? His most frequent linemates this season include elite talents like Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Evan Bouchard.

Now in his 14th NHL season, Nugent-Hopkins is nearing 1,000 career games, including playoffs. His shot totals have dropped to just 2.1 per game, the lowest since he was 22.

What Does This Mean for the Oilers?

Some argue this isn’t about age or decline but about circumstances. Edmonton’s power play, once record-setting, is not what it has been in the past. It appears to be picking up momentum, which will help Nuge’s numbers, but there’s a ways to go to get caught up. With just four assists and no goals on the man advantage this season, Nugent-Hopkins’ historically strong reliance on power-play production has become a glaring issue.

Does this mean taking him off of that power play? It might.

Nugent-Hopkins remains valuable for his versatility and modest cap hit, but the clock is ticking. At 30, he’s underperforming to the point where the Oilers need to give some serious thought to how he’s deployed. Pidutti argues that his consistency has always been a question but something about this season feels different.

He’s unlikely to be traded thanks to his team-friendly deal in a world where the salary cap is going up. That said, if the Oilers get into a financial bind and his production remains where it is now, conversations may occur. How can they not?

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