If Mr. Bad Guy Can’t Win, Watch Out in Edmonton

If the Edmonton Oilers don’t start the season hot, their new coaching hire of Mike Babcock could go sideways in a hurry, and it won’t even be because the guy is automatically “bad.” It’ll be about whether he can survive the first wave of problems without losing the room.

Kris Knoblauch wasn’t fired because he was a bad coach, but because the organization didn’t see him as able to get the team to the next step. If it quickly seems that Babcock can’t do that same job – as in getting the team to the next step – you can imagine how things could go downhill. Knoblauch’s error was that he was too much of a Mr. Nice Guy – a teacher type. Babcock has not a trace of that nice-guy persona. You’d have two coaches who couldn’t do the job, and I can’t imagine in what world putting up with a not-so-nice guy who can’t do the job would sit well with anyone.

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The Oilers Are in Win-Now Mode: There Are Hurdles to Overcome

The biggest way it goes south is when the team’s already in full “win now” mode. That’s not a normal development season where you can work on systems and be patient. If the Oilers come out looking messy—bad puck support, sluggish structure, guys playing too loose—fans and media start acting like the coaching hire is instantly the issue. But coaching can’t fix everything overnight.

Here are the hurdles that are basically impossible to overcome if the results aren’t there early:

First, the roster is star-heavy and expectations are massive. When you’ve got elite players, you need them buying into the plan 100%. If they feel like the coach is asking for a “new identity” that doesn’t match their style, you get weird hockey fast.

Second, the systems have to land immediately. If the breakout isn’t clean or the defensive coverage looks confused, teams get exposed within like two weeks. At that point, every loss becomes evidence, even if the real problem is timing and adjustment.

Third, if special teams slip, the whole agenda sinks. Power play chemistry takes time, and PK structure can fall apart just as fast. If both are bad early, confidence drops and then even the good shifts stop looking “real.”

And fourth—probably the hardest—there’s no runway. If the team’s not performing coming out of the gate, the coach is fighting a clock, not just the standings. So the “impossible hurdle” is: you need to fix team-wide stuff while everyone is already judging you mid-flight.

This Babcock Experiment Could Go Wrong Quickly

If the Oilers don’t pop out of the gate, the coaching hire could absolutely get cooked. It’ll just be less about talent and more about whether there’s enough time for adjustments to work.

Hiring Mike Babcock was a risk. He’s carrying a lot of baggage, but if things go well, those are likely forgotten. If they don’t go well, it might be a hot time in Edmonton. The bottom line is this: Babcock doesn’t have much runway because Edmonton has moved from development mode into win-now mode, so early struggles will be interpreted very differently.

Related: Evander Kane Has Testy Back-and-Forth With Oilers Reporter Online