Toronto Maple Leafs

The Perfect Storm That Changed the Maple Leafs’ Future

Mitch Marner’s departure looked like a loss for Toronto. But four dominoes later, it helped lead the Leafs to Gavin McKenna and a #1.

by
Stan Smith
August 14, 2026

Mitch Marner leaving the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2025 looked like the kind of move that fans immediately filed under “that one hurts.” And honestly, it did hurt. If you’re losing a top-level playmaker, it’s hard to spin that into sunshine and rainbows.

But here’s the thing: sometimes one roster change doesn’t just affect a team for a season—it sets off a chain reaction. And if you follow the dominoes closely, Marner’s departure might be the first step in Toronto ending up in a much better spot than anyone could’ve guessed at the time.

Four Steps That Turned Marner’s Exit Into Gavin McKenna and a #1

Step one: the “parting gift” that looked like a loss. As it became clear that Marner’s time in Toronto was coming to an end, the Maple Leafs didn’t just let it drag out. They made the move on July 1, 2025, trading Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights.

The return was Nicolas Roy, a player who, at the moment, didn’t exactly make Maple Leafs fans feel like they won the trade. But it did stop Toronto from losing Marner for nothing, which matters more than people like to admit in the moment.

Step two: Roy’s not the long-term answer, but he’s keeping things moving along. After a so-so season, Toronto ended up dealing Roy to the Colorado Avalanche. And here’s where it gets important: Toronto didn’t just trade him and walk away empty-handed. They got a 2026 fifth-round pick out of it, which they used to select prospect Cooper Williams. They also picked up a future first-round selection coming later (either 2027 or 2028).

It still wasn’t a “win now” situation. But Toronto didn’t come out of it with absolutely nothing either.

Then step three: the real domino falls elsewhere. Losing Marner didn’t just leave a hole on the ice. It also helped lead to a poor season. The Maple Leafs went from first place in the Atlantic Division in 2024-25 to last place one year later. The kind of slide that forces a whole organization to look in the mirror.

And once that kind of season happens, everything tends to change. That’s when Toronto made major moves: Brad Treliving was replaced by John Chayka, and Craig Berube was replaced behind the bench by Jim Hiller. Basically, the team began moving in a very different direction.

Step four: the draft lottery flips the script. And this is the “perfect storm” moment. Toronto won the NHL Draft Lottery. With the first overall pick, the Leafs selected Gavin McKenna.

From Marner to McKenna. That Irony Is Hard to Ignore.

So the way this story reads is simple: Marner’s departure was the first domino. And once that domino fell, the rest of the chain was already in motion. In the weirdest way possible, the “loss” turned into the setup—Toronto ended up landing a highly regarded young talent right when it needed a turning point most.