Marchenko Is the Hype — But Another Winger Might Be the Steal

There is a lot of buzz and hype about Kirill Marchenko right now – and for good reason. Marchenko is a 26-year-old, 6’3″, 201-pound right-shot winger who has put up 42, 74, and 67 points in the last three seasons. Players like this do not become available very often and usually can only be acquired through the draft. The rumors are that the Columbus Blue Jackets are moving on from him because he won’t sign a long-term extension, and they will get an absolute haul for the big, fast Russian.

However, in recent days, the “imminent” trade that was supposed to happen has suddenly become a maybe. Is there another winger on the Blue Jackets, however, that could be the target instead?

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Columbus is in a weird spot with their team, as they are trying to be competitive but struggling with getting long-term extensions signed. They just signed Jet Greaves to a three-year extension, avoiding arbitration. They still have Adam Fantilli to sign. They have a lot of young talent, but not everyone wants to stay. It is also difficult, as Fantilli will command a large salary after the Leo Carlsson offer sheet and Connor Bedard‘s big deal.

Dmitri Voronkov

Dmitri Voronkov, if Marchenko is too expensive or goes elsewhere, is the winger teams should target instead. Voronkov is likely more affordable than Marchenko and is a year younger at 25. He is one of the best net-front forwards in the entire league, leading the league last season with 10 tip-in goals. Voronkov is a left-shot and is a towering 6’5, 234 pounds. In the last three seasons, he has put up 32, 47, and 34 points, never scoring less than 17 goals.

A strong comparable for Voronkov is Zach Hyman—someone both Edmonton Oilers and Montreal Canadiens fans know well, especially with both teams linked to Marchenko.

Looking at Hyman’s age-24 and age-25 seasons versus Voronkov’s, the early returns actually favor Voronkov. He’s been more productive at the same stage, and the similarities in goals-per-game and points-per-game rates make the comparison even more compelling.

Hyman (24): 0.122 g/gp, 0.341 p/gp – Voronkov (24): 0.315 g/gp, 0,644 p/gp

Hyman (25): 0.183 g/gp, 0.488 p/gp – Voronkov (5): 0.270 g/gp, 0.508 p/gp

Hyman really took off later in his career, but at similar ages, Voronkov has outscored Hyman at every turn. The big difference would be their speed, as Hyman is a much quicker and faster player than Voronkov. However, Voronkov’s size is nearly unmatched and would be a big addition on the wings of almost any team in the league.

Who To Choose?

In a perfect world, a team would want to keep both. This doesn’t appear to be possible in Columbus. Marchenko is the better player and comes in next season at a $3.85 million AAV cap hit. However, Marchenko is going to cost a lot more assets, and his next deal likely starts at $12 million AAV. Voronkov is bigger, but slower than Marchenko, and hasn’t produced quite as much. He also comes in this next season at a $4.175 million AAV, slightly more than Marchenko.

A long-term deal for Voronkov is likely much more affordable, as his career high in points is 47. Marchenko is the choice most teams will want; however, for any teams that miss out, Voronkov would be a fantastic fallback target.

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