Jason Robertson Situation is Messy — Stars Have Nearly Impossible Decision to Make

The Jason Robertson contract saga in Dallas is escalating fast, and it appears more and more like the Dallas Stars might have no choice but to move on. But how they handle a potential Robertson departure remains to be seen.

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The 45-goal All-Star winger is a restricted free agent this offseason, and according to ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, the Stars have already made their move — and it wasn’t enough. Dallas put an eight-year, $12 million AAV extension on the table, matching the blockbuster deal they handed Mikko Rantanen after acquiring him from Carolina. Robertson’s camp rejected it. Now, multiple reports suggest Robertson is seeking upward of $14 million AAV — the exact number his new agent, Andy Scott, secured for Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton two years ago.

That could lead to a trade, or the Stars might be in a position where they’re waiting to see if a team will pony up the assets to make an offer via an offer sheet. Robertson would have to be willing to sign it, but the Stars likely can’t match.

Wyshynski writes:

“The issue with Robertson trying to go that route is cost of acquisition. For any AAV above $11,939,167, the cost would be four first-round picks in the next five drafts, starting in 2027. (Please recall Brady Tkachuk just moved for three first-rounders.) Many teams could do it. According to PuckPedia, only the Panthers, Maple Leafs and Avalanche don’t meet that requirement. But that’s a lot of first-rounders.”

Is Roberston Worth $14 Million Per Season?

It’s not surprising that the Stars are hesitant to shuffle their roster to pay Robertson $14 million. On the surface, it’s sounds high. But maybe it isn’t.

Robertson has eclipsed the 40-goal mark in three of the past five seasons and hasn’t missed a single game in four years. And when you consider that Rantanen’s $12 million deal was signed last year in a cap environment that has since soared significantly, $14 million starts to look a lot more reasonable in today’s market than it might on paper. Kirill Kaprizov just signed for $17 million per season, and he, too, had 45 goals last season.

For Robertson, it might be about a bit more than just the money, too. Some wonder if he’s feeling disrespected by the Stars. They could have locked him up earlier, but chose to prioritize Rantanen. They wanted Robertson to prove he was worth a huge extension, and he did. Now the Stars and any other interested team have to pay up.

Dallas gave Robertson a four-year bridge deal at $7.75 million AAV — a deal he outplayed in every way. Now he’s sitting at the negotiating table with a great deal of leverage, one year away from unrestricted free agency.

If a deal can’t be reached, Wyshynski believes the most likely outcome is that GM Jim Nill trades Robertson for a return that lands somewhere just below that four first-round pick threshold. Brady Tkachuk just got the Ottawa Senators three first-round picks. To think the Stars can do as well is not a stretch. The only difference is the AAV that’s coming for Robertson versus Tkachuk’s AAV.

Losing Robertson without getting maximum value back would be a franchise-defining mistake. The question is, do the Stars make their own deal? Or, do they wait for an offer sheet and take the four first-round picks?

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