Will Mark Giordano Sign with the Maple Leafs?: Three Considerations

The simple truth is that Mark Giordano is in a much better place right now than if he had not been traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs at the trade deadline. 

First, he got to play in his hometown of Toronto. Second, although Seattle (the home of the Kraken) is a great city and the players are appreciated, for a player who wants to win and whose career is winding down, moving to a contender such as the Maple Leafs gave him a chance to vie for a Stanley Cup.

Third, he played well when he was with the Maple Leafs and they’d really like to have him back. Fourth, because he did play well, even if he chooses not to sign with the Maple Leafs this offseason (he’s a UFA), there are probably a number of other teams who’d like to sign him given the level of his play.

Related: Expect Maple Leafs’ Kyle Dubas to Do Something Big This Summer

Three Considerations for Giordano

Logic suggests there are three considerations that Giordano will weigh to make his decision about where to sign, and the question is “Which consideration “weighs” the most in his mind?” That is, what does he value the most?

These three considerations are (1) salary, (2) the city where he plays, and (3) his desire to win a Stanley Cup. 

Consideration One: The Size of His Contract

The first consideration is money: “How much money will Giordano be able to earn on his next contract?” As reported in the Toronto Star yesterday, according to projection tools on some hockey analytics sites, Giordano is likely to be offered a contract for two years at an AAV of about $5 million. (from “Mark Giordano’s return to the Maple Leafs will be about dollars and good sense,” Mark Zwolinski, Toronto Star, 19/05/2022).

If money is what Giordano values, he and the Maple Leafs would likely part company. He’d be out of the reach of the team’s ability to pay him. There’s just not enough salary-cap space to make that happen. 

Consideration Two: The City Where He Plays 

The second consideration is where – what city – Giordano plays in. In Giordano’s own words, that matters. Specifically, he noted on Tuesday about playing in Toronto: “Everyone knows I’m from Toronto, I love it here. I’ve loved my time here.”

Giordano added that playing it was awesome “being able to play in (Scotiabank Arena) and put on that jersey, it was pretty cool having all that support … from family and friends.” 

Mark Giordano’s return to the Maple Leafs will be about dollars and good sense https://t.co/UIUBA0vOKS

— The Star Calgary (@thestarcalgary) May 20, 2022

Giordano then laid out his plan. “We’ll see what happens in the next [little bit]. [I’ll] talk to my agent here in the next week. It’s still pretty fresh, the loss, but [I’ll] talk to him and go from there. Obviously, I don’t think it’s a secret that I enjoyed my time here.”

Consideration Three: His Belief that the Maple Leafs Can Win

The note about the losing “being pretty fresh” matters to Giordano. He wants to win the Stanley Cup. The question is, “Does he believe that Toronto has the team to make that happen? Or, can he find a team he believes has a better chance?”

Mark Giordano thinks the Maple Leafs can take the next step. 📈 pic.twitter.com/p1gFnemYPF

— The Leafs Nation (@TLNdc) May 17, 2022

When speaking about the Maple Leafs, Giordano dropped a couple of hints that he liked the team and felt he could contribute to its success. First, he noted, “I feel I can still contribute, and help this team push the needle forward.”

Second, when speaking about his Maple Leafs’ teammates Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, he said “I definitely think that those guys can push this team into the right direction, over that line of winning and losing.”

So What Will It Be for Giordano?

If you were a poker player, you might lay down a bet that Giordano would opt to stay in Toronto with the Maple Leafs. He seems to be leaning that way in his comments about the last two considerations. In fact, Elliotte Friedman suggested as much this week when he was interviewed on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. 

He believed Giordano would possibly take a pay cut to remain with the Maple Leafs. Friedman said, “I think if he’s willing to come back for a low number, I wouldn’t be surprised if that gets finalized.”

When I read everything about Giordano I can read, I believe, at this stage of his career, the third consideration is the most important. Simply said, I believe Giordano will sign with the Maple Leafs if he thinks they can win the Stanley Cup.

Related: I Get Why Maple Leafs’ Fans Are Upset with the Years of Losing