Why Mike Babcock Will Slow Down Connor McDavid’s Scoring

Connor McDavid is still Connor McDavid, and there’s no real argument that he’ll be one of the best offensive players on the planet again. The interesting question in this interview isn’t “can McDavid score?” It’s more “how high can his point total get, assuming Mike Babcock changes the way Edmonton plays?” In a recent TSN interview, hockey analysts Mike Johnson and Jamie McLennan joined Aaron Korolnek to talk about the Oilers.

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Will McDavid’s Point Total Go Down Because of Babcock’s Coaching?

Babcock’s reputation is built on structure. He’ll be more systematic and organized, asking his stars to buy into a two-way plan. So the suggestion here is that McDavid’s point production could be slightly affected. It isn’t because he loses talent or touches, but because the team’s approach may limit some of the most wide-open, ultra-dangerous looks.

In a tighter defensive system, players don’t always get the same freedom to freelance in the offensive zone. And at five-on-five—where so many of McDavid’s “high-end” point years are produced—there could be more match-up management. He could be spending less time in the easiest offensive situations when specific opponents or scenarios call for it.

Even If McDavid’s Scoring Drops, He Won’t Have a Bad Year

That doesn’t mean anyone expects a drop-off into “bad year” territory. We’re still talking about McDavid. He’s going to create offence because that’s what he does. That said, maybe he won’t have the same peak statistical season we’ve been spoiled by. The point is more “still massive, but not necessarily repeating the absolute ceiling.”

They also bring up something practical. There are extra games this season. For a player like McDavid, a couple more games can be the difference between a normal elite year and a really loud one. Even if his role or offensive situations are a bit more controlled, those extra dates add up, especially for someone who’s constantly involved in scoring chances.

How Many Points Will McDavid Score This Season?

Johnson and McLennan predicted McDavid would finish in the low-to-mid 130s, with a ceiling around 135. That’s still a monster total. It’s just not likely to be another 150-point campaign. With Babcock, that doesn’t seem realistic anymore.

In the end, the whole goal is for the Oilers to buy into “the process” of winning, and if the system makes the team better, McDavid can still be the engine even if the numbers are a tiny step less wild than the absolute best-case version.

Related: One Current Oiler Will Be Key To Mike Babcock’s Success