Who Says the Maple Leafs Need More Scoring?

In a recent post, Steven Ellis of Daily Faceoff makes an interesting observation in his look at the Toronto Maple Leafs’ prospect pool. He sees Gavin McKenna as much more of a playmaker than a pure goal scorer and wonders where the next natural goal scorer is coming from.

Perhaps it’s easy to talk ourselves into this big “oh no, the Toronto Maple Leafs can’t score” storyline. And on paper it might sound brutal. Toronto has the elite stuff at the top with Auston Matthews, and you’ve got William Nylander right there too, plus (depending on the year) John Tavares can still be a threat. But people act like that’s the whole problem: like if you’re not drowning the net with everyone, you’re basically doomed.

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So Is the Maple Leafs Goal-Scoring Problem as Dire as Analysts Think?

Ellis makes the point that after your elite goal scorers (namely Matthews), the Maple Leafs don’t have enough players who can score 40 every season. And that’s why they sometimes look stuck, especially when Matthews isn’t at full health. If he’s off, the offence can feel like it goes quiet fast.

But what if it’s not actually as dire as it sounds? Consider the simple math. If the Maple Leafs had three true elite scorers who each got you 40 goals, that’s 120 goals total. Now imagine it another way: six players each put up around 20 goals. Same 120. The difference isn’t the total—it’s how the goals are distributed and how easy (or hard) it is for the other team to smother the whole plan.

Three Elite Goal Scorers Are Any Coach’s Dream, Except

Three elite guys are scary—no doubt. When Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares are humming, Toronto can beat basically anyone. The downside is concentration risk. Opponents can game-plan to load up the matchups, send their best defensive pairs and best penalty-killing looks at those top threats, and if one or two of them go quiet (or get hurt), the scoring can drop off like a cliff. You’ve seen that movie in Toronto before.

Six 20-goal players are way harder to shut down. You can’t just park one checking line over one player and hope for the best. Secondary scoring becomes more reliable night to night, and the team doesn’t get as fragile when a top guy sits or isn’t 100%. And the playoffs usually reward balance more than “all-in on three shooters.” Teams that are built to survive series-long adjustments tend to have a bunch of complementary contributors who pop off at the right times.

Maybe the Maple Leafs Don’t Have Six Players Who Can Come Close to 20 Goals

The Maple Leafs might fit that conversation right now. After Matthews/Nylander/Tavares, the roster probably needs more guys who can quietly give you 18–22 goals. Not superstars—just consistent finishers that keep pressure on. But look at the players on this team.

Who’s to say that Matthew Knies won’t score 20 for the third straight season? And what if Easton Cowan has a breakout second season? And Gavin McKenna, who is more of a distributor, could score 20. Even players who are more playmaker than pure goal scorer can create enough chances to get to 20. Nick Paul has done it twice, and Jack Roslovic has done it three times. Even Dakota Joshua would have had a shot at 20 with the Canucks in 2023-24 if an injury hadn’t stopped him at 18 goals.

Maybe the Maple Leafs aren’t doomed. Maybe the “goal-scoring problem” is less about the team lacking finishers and more about how scoring can be built to withstand injuries and matchups better.

Related: The Most Regretted Trades By The Toronto Maple Leafs