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The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Looking Forward to Next Season’s Salary Cap’s Increase

News is that next season’s salary cap will increase. What benefit will that have on the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Toronto Maple Leafs fans know the team’s predicament. The team has a great core of stars, but these stars are paid exceedingly well. In fact, in terms of real salary paid this season, the Maple Leafs have the three highest-paid players in the NHL in Mitch Marner (current salary at $16 million and salary-cap hit at $10.893), Auston Matthews (current salary at $15.9 million and salary-cap hit at $11.634 million) and John Tavares (current salary at $15.9 million and salary-cap hit at $11 million).

As these players were signed, it was about as much as Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas (who had to be looking ahead) could squeeze out of the money the organization had available. But, signing those players has been a double-edged sword. On the positive side, the team has core players who are elite. On the negative side, that salary outlay has put a bind on the team’s ability to sign players to middle-range salaries.

In fact, the result is a sort of upstairs/downstairs financial structure within the team where some players live upstairs – earning huge salaries – and some players live downstairs – earning more than 20 times less. Having that financial structure was the only way to build a team given the salary-cap rules that were in place for the 2019-2o season.

However, this week things changed.

Related: Is the Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Kyle Dubas Interested in Two KHL Players?

News on the NHL Salary Cap

During the NHL GM’s meetings, the NHL’s early projection is that the upper limits of the salary cap are moving up. In fact, it looks like the cap is making quite a big jump. Multiple online reports are that the NHL will operate with a salary cap with an upper limit of between $84–$88.2 million for the 2020-21 season.

TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that the new NHL cap projection for 2020-21 would bump the cap up about $7 million more than limit teams currently operate under (currently about $81.5 million). Seravalli rightly points out that this number depends upon negotiations with NHLPA.

A number of teams are tight against that cap already and could be even tighter next season. Specifically, as I’ve noted earlier in this post, the Toronto Maple Leafs is a team notorious for having a few core players signed to expensive contracts (Tavares, Matthews, Marner, and William Nylander). Suddenly, there’s some room to work on team needs.

Before news of the pending salary-cap bump, it would have likely been a summer when Dubas would have had to make some magic somewhere or move prized players either through trade or allowing them to sign with other teams. That would have been trouble for the Maple Leafs; however, they were far from alone. The St. Louis Blues, Dallas Stars, and Edmonton Oilers would also have been hurting.

What we don’t know yet are the numbers on the salary cap floor. And, from a pure dollars and cents perspective, if I were representing the National Hockey League’s Players Association (the NHLPA) that’s the number I would care most about. A large number of NHL players (to my count 73 players) are signed to NHL league minimum contracts. That includes for the Maple Leafs such players as Frederik Gauthier, Jack Campbell, Martin Marincin, and Jason Spezza.

From a practical point of view, should the salary-cap minimum floor rise, it might create a situation where a number of trades become necessary so that some teams might have to trade for players with large contracts simply to hit that salary-cap floor.

How the Projected Salary Cap Might Impact the Maple Leafs

There’s no secret about what the Maple Leafs need during the offseason to strengthen its roster. The team needs a top-four defenseman. Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci are likely gone; and, in some ways, that’s addition by subtraction. However, the team likely can’t win with the defensemen that remain, which is built around Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin.

Justin Holl has looked good and has been a surprise. Rasmus Sandin shows promise. Travis Dermott has potential but hasn’t reached it yet. Martin Marincin has recently surprised people as well when he’s played more regular minutes. And, there’s hope that Timothy Liljegren can make the cut. Calle Rosen was brought back this season, but will he stay?

In short, there’s currently a huge gap between the top two defensemen on the team (Muzzin and Rielly) and other defensemen I’ve mentioned. What makes the added salary-cap space such a gift to the Maple Leafs is that it will help the team close that gap. Dubas will likely try to land another defenseman and will utilize the extra cap space to do so.

Already, names are being tossed around. Chief among them is Alex Pietrangelo. The 30-year-old is both a great offensive and defensive player and his $6.5 million contract ends after this season. He’s also an Ontario-born player, who’s from only about 50 km away from Toronto. But, if the team goes after him, he’ll cost them big on the open market.

Other lesser lights are also available at another level of defensemen. These include the Calgary Flames T.J. Brodie, who’s on an expiring $4.65 million contract. The Washington Capitals Brenden Dillon is also on an expiring $3.27 million contract. Finally, the Vancouver Canucks Chris Tanev, for fans who live outside the Vancouver area, is much better than people think; he’s also on an expiring $4.45 million contract. It will likely be a good payday for these players, and the Maple Leafs could be their new employer.

Related: Maple Leafs Get Good News on Rielly and Muzzin?

Where Does this Leave the Maple Leafs?

Prior to the announcement earlier this week about a salary-cap rise, the biggest issue the Maple Leafs had was cap space. Even should the cap rise to “only” $84 million, the Maple Leafs are projected to have only $6.2 million in cap space. At max, the team will have about $10.4 million. That’s not much flexibility, especially given contract considerations for RFAs Ilya Mikheyev, Travis Dermott, and Frederik Gauthier. Mikheyev and Dermott are for-sure signees. I’m not certain if new head coach Sheldon Keefe likes Gauthier as much as Mike Babcock did.

Still, the new upper limit of the salary-cap offers the Maple Leafs a chance to employ that space with some cost-cutting that will help it import that new defenseman the team needs to improve its next season’s roster.

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