The Maple Leafs’ Cap Nightmare Just Took an Unexpected Turn

For years, the Toronto Maple Leafs were the NHL’s cautionary tale. The pandemic-era flat cap squeezed them harder than almost anyone, and the big money handed to their core left little room to maneuver. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares were all paid big money under the assumption that the salary cap would keep rising. It didn’t. Locking up the Core 4 went from a blessing to a curse.

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Today, as the salary cap explodes and is set to jump in record ways, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox rightfully points out that the same contracts and locked-in deals are starting to look like a strength.

Granted, some of the deals are different. Marner is gone. Tavares is making far less. So too, Kirill Marchenko is in at $12.5 million starting next season, and Darren Raddysh is in a $8.5 million per season over the next eight seasons. Those two deals aren’t cheap. At the same time, they are expected to look favorable, and Toronto has gotten ahead of the massive cap jump that’s coming.

Fox writes:

“When the cap soars to its projected $127.5 million in 2028-29, the Leafs are on track to already have six everyday forwards (Nylander, Tavares, Marchenko, Gavin McKenna, Nick Paul, Brandon Duhaime), both goalies (Sergei Bobrovsky, Stolarz), and their current top four defencemen (Darren Raddysh, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, McCabe) all signed for $71 million total.”

He adds, “That leaves $56.5 million to pay Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid? and fill in the gaps.”

For the Most Part, Chayka Avoided the Big Overspends

Some will argue that the Marchenko deal is a big one, with no guarantee that it was a wise one. That’s fair. However, heading into training camp, John Chayka wasn’t forced into a summer spending spree that may have permanently dented other teams. He didn’t get stuck like the Anaheim Ducks. He didn’t pay out huge salaries like the San Jose Sharks. The re-signings of Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe, John Tavares, William Nylander and Anthony Stolarz, all done under former GM Brad Treliving. All look like decent value now (with Knies now in Columbus as part of the Marchenko trade).

With the salary cap expected to reach $127.5 million in 2028-29, Fox notes that Toronto is on track to have one of the league’s better situations. They’ll need to sort out the Matthews situation, but they have enough money to do so, and no other contracts beyond Easton Cowan require attention.

Whether Chayka chooses to do with Cowan what the Ducks did with a six-year, $43.2 million contract for defenceman Tristan Luneau remains to be seen. They don’t have to. That deal will be pushed to next summer at the earliest. Chayka said of that trend that hampered Anaheim, “I was comfortable to sit that one out.”

Chayka Looks Forward to the Contract Challenge Ahead

Chayka looks forward to the challenge when the day does come for him to make some tough decisions. “I love financial theory as a concept. It’s shifting. And as things shift, people are trying to forecast and project growth. And in any business, you try to get ahead of it, and there’s certain elements of being proactive.” He added, “Probably with some of these, we’re going to look back and teams are going to be really happy and excited. Some of them will be OK. And probably some that you regret. And who’s done a good job or not will probably dictate the success of their team moving forward.” That’s the challenge: guessing correctly.

Until he does or doesn’t, the irony of where the Leafs are now is hard to miss. The team most hurt by the flat cap may be among the best positioned (outside of the Montreal Canadiens) for what comes next.

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