Retaining That Much Money in a Nurse Trade to the Bruins a Mistake for the Oilers

Darnell Nurse‘s name has been floating around the rumor mill all draft weekend, with the Boston Bruins recently emerging as a potential landing spot. One of three teams Nurse has reportedly OK’d on his short list, the rumored swap centered on Bruins defenseman Mason Lohrei.

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The framework, first reported by Kevin Paul Dupont, would have Edmonton retaining a chunk of Nurse’s $9.25 million cap hit to help bridge the gap with Lohrei’s $3.2 million deal. It’s the kind of trade that sounds reasonable in theory — shorter term and some cap space savings on a younger player.

However, the way Dupont outlines the details of the deal would be a big mistake for the Oilers.

You Don’t Pay to Downgrade

Dupont writes:

“Murmurings during draft weekend out of EDM that Oil could be down for a Nurse-Lohrei swap, with Oil willing to “share” the difference in AAVs (approx $6M spread). I could see Bruins moving form Lohrei’s $3.2M AAV to something around $6.5M AAV for Nurse.”

In other words, the Oilers would retain $3 million on Nurse, bringing his cap hit down to $6.25 million. First, that’s far more than the Oilers are willing to do. Every report from any reputable insider has already said GM Stan Bowman is doing his best to retain nothing. Eating $3 million to move Nurse is likely a non-starter.

Second, you take on that kind of retained salary for a player like Lohrei. Arguably one of the Bruins’ worst defensemen, there’s a reason they’re willing to move on from him and his relatively low salary.

Lohrei’s Numbers Mean Edmonton Would Be Doing the Bruins Too Big a Favor

This isn’t a knock on Lohrei’s long-term upside — he’s only 25, and plenty of defensemen take time to round into form. But “potential” isn’t what the Oilers are looking for. They certainly won’t take on what amounts to over $6 million on a maybe.

Despite playing sheltered third-pairing minutes against lighter competition in Boston, Lohrei finished on the negative side of things in expected-goals-for percentage and high-danger-chances-for percentage. He’s an offense-first defenseman whose game still has real holes on the other end of the ice.

Meanwhile, Nurse is a proven NHL defenseman who has logged 20-plus minutes a night for years, been an anchor in the top four on a Cup-contending team, and brought physicality and penalty-kill reliability. Yes, he’s overpaid. But, by today’s cap standards, it’s no longer by that much. Like teams won’t do for the Oilers, Edmonton shouldn’t pay a premium to take on someone else’s problem.

What Edmonton Should Actually Do

If the Oilers’ real goal is creating cap flexibility, there are paths that don’t involve paying retention to take on a defenseman who’s trending the wrong way. Moving Nurse for picks or futures without attaching money, or simply riding out the final years of his deal makes far more sense than taking on Lohrei and barely saving anything.

The Oilers have already been patient over the years, during which Nurse’s deal was an albatross. It isn’t any longer. They should be selling that to teams. ‘We paid for his undervalued seasons, and you get him close to fair market value.’

The instinct to “do something” with Nurse’s contract is understandable. But not every move is progress. Retaining money to acquire Lohrei in his current form would leave Edmonton paying more for less — and that’s the definition of a bad trade, not a smart one.

Frankly, I’m not sure the Oilers should even do that trade straight across with no salary retained.

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