Oilers’ Second-Unit Depth Problem: No Big Deal or a Point of Trade Debate?

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In a recent article for The Athletic, Allan Mitchell asks whether the Edmonton Oilers need to trade to upgrade their second pair on the blue line. Suggesting that Connor Murphy and Ryan Shea must perform better if a Stanley Cup is the goal, he writes, “Oilers general manager Stan Bowman may already be looking for an upgrade that would place Murphy on the third pair.”

It’s an interesting question given the Oilers are off to a 13-3-3 start. He argues that the pairing could be impacted by a lack of a strong second line offensively. Because Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm get most of their minutes with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, any other pairing is going to naturally suffer. But is that the only reason Murphy and Shea haven’t been able to contribute offensively?

Essentially, this duo doesn’t score and isn’t winning its minutes, and some say Murphy looks slower and struggles to move the puck. However, it might not be entirely their fault. In another article on The Athletic about players from each team who need to step up, they write:

“If we have to single someone out who’s playing regularly, though, it might have to be Connor Murphy. He has just a 35 percent xG rate and has been a complete black hole offensively. That’s not his calling card, but the defensive game hasn’t been pretty either.”

Oilers Are So Top Heavy It’s Going to Impact The Blue Line

The first thing to understand is that Edmonton’s forwards run from elite to weak. Any line with McDavid or Draisaitl is as good as it gets, and the weakest option this year is rookie Owen Michaels, who started well but has struggled in recent weeks. A defence pair is only as good as the forwards in front of it, and Shea and Murphy have been dealt a hard hand.

With McDavid, they’ve played 27 minutes at five-on-five, and that group has scored as many as they’ve allowed. At a rate of 2.23 goals per 60 minutes, the quality of chances against suggests they should have allowed only 1.36. That could be bad luck.

With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (62 minutes), the trio hasn’t scored, but they’ve allowed just 1.92 goals per 60, better than the 2.36 expected. Shea and Murphy’s third-line minutes with Jason Dickinson (34 minutes) are similar: 1.84 goals against per 60 and no goals for. With the Michaels line (83 minutes), they’ve allowed 2.16 per 60, better than the 2.82 expected, but the Oilers have scored only 40 percent of the goals, well above the 20 percent expected only because of how little the line creates.

The theme is clear. Shea and Murphy keep goals out. What’s missing is anyone to finish at the other end, and that isn’t the defencemen’s job. This pair is built to defend, with Shea as the passer and Murphy as the low-offense partner. But is that good enough?

What Are The Other Options for the Oilers?

Understanding that Jake Walman was supposed to be a difference-maker here and hasn’t been, the question becomes what the Oilers do if the second pair never provides any offense. Murphy’s skating and puck movement are fair questions, especially with the playoffs in mind, and his contract could become a concern as he ages. Does Edmonton focus on getting Walman back into the lineup so his offense helps the cause? Do they try to promote from underneath and move up Ty Emberson or Shakir Mukhamadullin? Or do they make a trade?

Mitchell seems to think this is a better question to ask now that both Matt Savoie is back and Zach Hyman is fully up to speed. A better supporting cast would show quickly whether Shea and Murphy can drive results or just hold the fort. If the answer is the latter, the Oilers’ fix is up front, not on the blue line.

For now, the second pair is doing its job. The Oilers’ bigger problem is figuring out if they need more goals from the second line or the second pair.

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Wild, Sharks, Red Wings & Oilers