Oilers’ Owen Michaels Is Winning Trust, But the Underlying Numbers Tell a Different Story

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The Edmonton Oilers have done an excellent job finding talent outside traditional channels without sacrificing draft picks or prospects.

General manager Stan Bowman has built a reputation for uncovering value in uncommon places, strengthening the organization’s depth while adding players capable of pushing for NHL opportunities. Last season, Josh Samanski ended up playing a larger role than many expected. This summer, Bowman continued that approach.

The Oilers added AHL standout Eduards Tralmaks, signed Aku Raty after a strong season in Finland, and brought in Czech defenseman Tomas Cibulka, who appears to have legitimate NHL potential.

But among all of those additions, one player has emerged as the biggest surprise.

Owen Michaels Continues to Impress

When the Oilers signed Owen Michaels following three strong seasons at Western Michigan, the expectation was simply to add organizational depth.

Michaels captained Western Michigan during his final collegiate season, but few expected him to immediately push for NHL ice time. As head coach Mike Babcock has admitted, this wasn’t the plan.

Yet six games into the season, Michaels has become impossible to ignore.

The rookie has recorded two goals while appearing in every game for Edmonton and has quickly earned Babcock’s trust. Against the San Jose Sharks on Saturday, Michaels was deployed late while the Oilers were protecting a lead, taking key faceoffs and helping kill off both a 6-on-4 and 6-on-3 advantage.

That’s a significant responsibility for a player who wasn’t even projected to start the season in this role.

Michaels is averaging 13:25 per game, and his workload continues to grow. He logged a career-high 16:50 against the Los Angeles Kings, another sign that the coaching staff trusts him in important situations.

Ironically, that game also highlighted the unpredictable nature of faceoffs. After winning 10 of 12 draws against San Jose, Michaels managed just one win on 11 attempts against Los Angeles.

The Underlying Numbers Are Concerning

While Babcock has consistently praised Michaels, the underlying analytics paint a much different picture.

The Oilers coach recently explained why he remains encouraged despite the numbers:

“They have been avoiding our big line with their best players, so we have been using Mike to follow them. So he’s in a situation where he’s playing against really good players every single night and he still seems to be competitive and doing well. Now, sometimes on the shot clock people say ‘whoa that doesn’t add up,’ it adds up with what I’m watching. They give up no chances and get chances so to me, they got a good situation going.”

Babcock’s comments provide important context.

Michaels currently owns a 33.8 percent expected goals share, a number that suggests Edmonton is getting heavily outplayed when he’s on the ice. His PDO is also well above normal levels, indicating that some of the positive results could be driven by percentages that are unlikely to be maintained over a full season.

If those percentages begin to normalize while the territorial play remains the same, the results could quickly become much less favorable.

However, there are mitigating factors.

Michaels has started just 21.9 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, one of the clearest indicators that he is being deployed in difficult situations. He’s also facing stronger competition than anyone expected when the season began and has effectively been handling third-line responsibilities because of Edmonton’s injury situation.

When the roster gets healthier, Michaels is more likely to settle into a fourth-line role where the matchup burden becomes much lighter.

Are Faceoffs and Penalty Killing Enough?

This is where the conversation gets interesting.

Even with the concerning analytics, Michaels has established himself as one of Edmonton’s most dependable faceoff options and has become a regular part of the penalty kill.

Those are two areas where the Oilers have searched for answers for years.

His ability to win draws, kill penalties, and play center from the right side gives him a skill set that is not easy to find within the organization. That’s likely why Babcock continues to trust him despite the underlying numbers.

The question becomes whether those strengths are enough to secure a permanent roster spot if the possession metrics don’t improve.

If the expected goals continue trending in the wrong direction and those chances eventually start ending up in Edmonton’s net, the coaching staff may be forced to reconsider his role.

For now, though, Michaels is giving the Oilers exactly what they need.

The organization has long searched for a reliable right-shot center, and the rookie’s emergence has provided an unexpected solution. He’s taken advantage of injuries, earned Babcock’s confidence, and forced himself into the lineup through strong play.

As Babcock often says, “The players decide, not me. I just watch.”

Right now, Michaels is making that decision very difficult.

The analytics suggest caution. The eye test, faceoff results, and penalty-killing work suggest he’s earning every opportunity. If he can maintain those strengths while improving the underlying numbers in a more sheltered role, Bowman may have quietly uncovered another gem.

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