NHL Reacts to Carlsson Offer Sheet: It Was a 4 Team Bidding War — And More Are Coming

The hockey world is reacting to the Philadelphia Flyers’ offer sheet for Anaheim Ducks forward Leo Carlsson. In a shocking twist on Friday, the Carlsson signed an offer sheet worth $18 million per season over five years. It’s a huge number that will absolutely have a domino effect across the NHL.

Not only will teams have to reevaluate what they’re offering their RFAs — like Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli and others — now teams are wondering if more offer sheets are coming. This wasn’t a lone shot in the dark.

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According to Darren Dreger, Carlsson actually drew interest from four separate teams willing to present offer sheets, with several others expressing serious interest beyond that. Dreger says the structure of Philadelphia’s winning bid is extraordinary — heavily loaded with signing bonuses, with close to $20 million paid out immediately upon league registration, and huge bonus payouts built into all five years of the deal.

Elliotte Friedman filled in more of the math: between the front-loading and bonus structure, Carlsson stands to earn roughly $39 million over the next 12 months alone. Anaheim, which has publicly said it intends to match any offer sheet on Carlsson, now has seven days to make that call. If the Ducks decline, they’d receive four first-round picks as compensation.

The ripple effects may be the bigger story.

How Will Teams React to This Offer Sheet?

Perhaps the most important line of the day belongs to Chris Johnston, who indicated there are rumblings the Carlsson offer sheet may not be the only one filed today across the NHL. If that’s true, teams will have tough decisions to make, both in terms of the clubs offering and the teams who will have to match or decline.

“If an offer sheet comes along at some point, there’s no doubt that we’re in a situation, we’ve got lots of cap space that if it did happen that we’re able to match anything.” said Don Waddell, GM of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

“Each situation is different. In our situation, our salary cap (Oilers) was much different sheet than Anaheim’s and the offer was much different than Carlsson’s. I don’t know if there will a run of offer sheets now. The cap has never grown this rapidly before, so it is a bit different (Weber in 2012), and I’ve heard there might be more, but until we see it you never know,” Edmonton Oilers GM Stan Bowman said.

The Carlsson saga may end up remembered less for its own outcome and more as the moment when offer sheets stopped being a rare tactic and became a real market force. At the same time, the bar has been set at $18 million AAV for Carlsson. This could reshape extension talks for a whole tier of young stars, not just the player at the center of this one.

What Is the Going Rate for Future NHL Stars Now?

Kevin Weekes reports that Anaheim had been hoping to land Carlsson and teammate Cutter Gauthier in the $10-12 million AAV range, fully aware that top prospect Beckett Sennecke would be next in line for a big payday. Philadelphia’s aggressive number blows past that framework — and Weekes notes the fallout won’t stop in Anaheim, pointing to Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini as two more young stars whose eventual price tags just got more expensive.

Around the league, executives are already speculating about how Anaheim responds. Frank Seravalli canvassed rival GMs, one of whom called it an easy match that nonetheless jams up the Ducks’ cap, while wondering if a three-year term might have been an even more effective pressure tactic. Another executive floated a more dramatic scenario: Anaheim simply takes the four first-round picks and uses them to pursue a run at Dylan Larkin instead.

Jason Gregor of Sports 1440 writes, “This isn’t a smart offer sheet by the Flyers, unless you are confident ANA will match. If they don’t you don’t have a 1st for four years and too much AAV for one player. Offer sheets, like Hayton, Broberg, Holloway, are better when AAV and picks aren’t too restrictive.”

Then again, as the cap rises, maybe $18 million was set to be the going rate for a player like this. Maybe all the Flyers did was just hurry up the process to get there.

Johnston noted, ‘The yearly signing bonus payments in Leo Carlsson’s offer sheet: $19.95M, $18.1M, $17.05M, $15.2M and $15M. This is a cross the Rubicon moment for the NHL.”

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