NHL Insider Predicts Connor McDavid Shafts the Oilers in a Sign-and-Trade Deal

Sportsnet insider Frank Seravalli, in his first column for the network, predicted Connor McDavid will not sign an extension with the Edmonton Oilers next summer and will instead play out 2027-28 elsewhere. It’s not an incredibly bold take to say that he thinks McDavid might leave the Oilers; everyone outside of the Edmonton market seems to love jumping on that bandwagon. However, how McDavid leaves is a bit bolder.

Servalli’s full prediction: “Connor McDavid does not sign a contract extension in Edmonton next summer, when first eligible, and plays out 2027-28. My belief: Though undecided, if McDavid is ultimately changing teams, it won’t be via trade, as he won’t want to weaken the next team before his arrival. Think a small sign-and-trade with a piece for his rights, similar to Mitch Marner.”

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The Toronto Maple Leafs traded Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights on July 1, 2025, in a sign-and-trade deal. Toronto got Nicolas Roy in return, and Marner agreed to an eight-year, $96-million extension with Toronto before the swap was completed.

McDavid is in year one of a two-year, $12.5 million AAV extension, a discount meant to give Edmonton a real shot at a Stanley Cup. But the Oilers were bounced in the first round in 2025-26 after back-to-back Finals appearances, and some believe frustration is building.

Why Would the Oilers Allow What the Maple Leafs Did?

Seravalli’s key detail is that McDavid likely won’t waive his no-move clause for a traditional blockbuster trade, since that would weaken his next team before he even arrives. That leaves Edmonton with an unappealing choice: a small sign-and-trade for his rights, similar to the Mitch Marner situation, or letting him walk outright in free agency. That is, unless they trade him earlier and try to get the best deal possible.

This also assumes McDavid is comfortable leaving the Oilers with no return in what would otherwise have been one of the biggest blockbuster trades of this generation. It’s hard to know if McDavid would do that to the Oilers, especially knowing his value. In Toronto’s case, there was real animosity between Marner and the organization. He likely wasn’t keen to do the Maple Leafs any favors.

Seravalli isn’t alone in this view that McDavid won’t stay. However, he might be the first insider to suggest that McDavid would actively hurt the Oilers’ chances of getting a solid return for him just to make sure the team he’s going to doesn’t empty its cupboards to acquire him.

What If Seravalli Is Completely Wrong About McDavid?

What Seravalli seems to assume is a forgone conclusion is that McDavid isn’t staying in Edmonton. No. 97 hasn’t given any public indication he wants out, and by all accounts he wants to win in Edmonton specifically, with the core and city he’s invested 11 seasons in.

He’s got friends on this team that want him to stay and he wants to win with. And, if it’s about money, the Oilers will happily give it to him. They are one of the most profitable franchises in the NHL and the salary cap increases will give them plenty of space to pay him $24-$25 million. Not every team can do so.

Next: The Maple Leafs Made a Daring Trade, But I’m Sad to Lose Knies