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New NHL Projections for Next Season Troubling, and Just Plain “Bad” [Report]

An interesting article was published Tuesday morning by ESPN and it explains big concerns the NHL won’t have the 2020-21 season they wanted.

ESPN reporters Greg Wyshynski and Emily Kaplan wrote a very interesting article on Tuesday morning that sheds some light on what owners, players, and fans can expect the 2020-21 NHL regular season to look like. Spoiler alert… it isn’t pretty.

Despite public statements from NHL executives like Gary Bettman, Bill Daly and others that the NHL is actively working towards a full season that can be condensed starting in November, that’s not at all what Wyshynski and Kaplan seem to have discovered.

While Daly has suggested the NHL will stay “flexible”, what’s going on behind the scenes is less than good news. Collaborating and pooling together quotes from NHL executives on the state of the NHL moving forward, the opening shockers are that the league is looking at a 60-65 game season, possibly more NHL bubble games, a much later start than November and that investors and owners are going to get crushed.

The two scribes write that the NHL has been looking at the 2020-21 season for months and things are not going to pan out as originally projected. The opening quote from one executive is perhaps the most telling:

“We know it’s going to be bad. We’re going to try and make it as ‘least bad’ as possible. We know we’re going to take a bath. We’re all going to take big baths.”

A Tentative Regular Season Start Date

From there, the article explains that the tentative start date of December 1, is not realistic. Privately, team executives believes things will need to be pushed back to the point that taking around 20 games off the NHL schedule is a starting point for how much it will be condensed. “We all realize an 82-game schedule for next season is a pipe dream, “one executive said.

Another believed that an early January start date seems more likely and that 70 games could be a baseline for next season since that’s the amount of games listed as minimum for regional television contracts. Even that could be altered.

Related: Coyotes Could Trade Players, Including Kuemper to Recoup Draft Picks

NHL Fans in Attendance?

As for the chances that fans will be allowed back in the buildings to watch their favorite teams, the latest news that there are three possible scenarios:

  • No fans
  • A progressive projection, starting with no fans and then increasing to 50% and then up to 90%
  • Potentially opening with fans, and growing from 50% to 75% to 90% capacity

One executive explained how the more conservative scenario could really hurt league revenues. As to when fans would be able to enter the arenas: “… you’re talking about February or March, because it makes it more likely that you’ll have fans sooner,” he said. He added, “So much of the revenue is driven by gate, that we need fans in the building. If there are no fans, we’re going to lose a ton of money.”

A couple NHL executives noted that while some teams could sustain the impact of what that means for their organization’s bottom line, some teams can’t and the losses and their respective futures would be in jeopardy.

Outside of the financial impact, if only a certain amount of fans are permitted, what does that mean for season ticket holders? In many cities the fan base consists of more season tickets holders than some projections of 25% capacity could accommodate. Do you start rotating tickets? Who gets priority?

Not to mention, what can a team charge for tickets? In some cities, ticket prices are already so low, they can’t possibly go any lower.

More NHL Bubble Games?

Former NHL insider John Shannon already got fans riled up when he suggested the NHL might looking at more bubble games, this time rotating between four cities. Logistically it could work and yes, the season would move more quickly, but it’s not what anyone wants.

Maybe the league gets more games in, but it’s clear from this year’s playoffs (which by many accounts have been a huge success) that many players don’t like the isolation. Some have chosen to leave.

The Health and Safety Of Fans

If the NHL does move to letting fans back in, it would be unwise to undersell the total investment that would be required to get the arenas up to code. There are so many things that would need to be done, the investments would be incredibly massive.

From sanitization techniques, contactless touch points for concessions, extra staff to monitor how many people are in designated areas like restrooms, it will cost the owners millions. The biggest investment could be air circulation systems. They are taking the highest priority for many owners.

All of this sends one very clear statement: at the very least, there is a lot the NHL still doesn’t know. And, that could take way more time than originally anticipated to figure out.

Next: Insider Says Jets Could Make Laine and Ehlers Available in Trade

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