Maple Leafs or Oilers Top Line: Which Is Better Right Now?

Comparing the Oilers and the Maple Leafs Top Lines

Looking at the early-season line data, the difference between Edmonton’s top unit and Toronto’s is pretty stark. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Vasily Podkolzin have played together for about 83 minutes across six games. In that time, they’ve scored 11 goals and allowed just one. That’s a ridiculous 91.7% goals-for percentage. The expected goals paint almost the same picture — 5.5 xGF against 1.5 xGA, good for a 77.9% share.

They’re not just getting lucky. They’re controlling play at an elite level and finishing at an even higher rate.

See the chart below:

Now look at the Maple Leafs’ top line of Auston Matthews, Jack Roslovic, and Kirill Marchenko. They’ve played roughly 60 minutes over seven games. The actual results are the opposite of Edmonton’s: two goals for, three against. That’s a 40% goals-for share. The underlying numbers are better — 3.1 xGF versus 1.6 xGA, a solid 65.8% expected-goals share. But the results haven’t followed yet.

What’s Worth Noting About These Two Top Lines?

A few things jump out. First, the ice time. McDavid’s line is averaging almost 14 minutes together a night. Matthews’ group is at 8:34. That suggests the Oilers are leaning harder on their top unit, while Toronto is spreading minutes around more or still experimenting with chemistry.

Second, the finishing. Edmonton’s line is converting chances at a ridiculous rate right now. Toronto’s is not. The Maple Leafs’ expected numbers say they should be outscoring teams when those three are on the ice. The actual scoreboard says otherwise. It’s a small sample, of course, but the gap between process and results is noticeable.

The Difference Between the Oilers and the Maple Leafs Might Simply Be Talent

The talent level is different too. McDavid and Draisaitl are two of the best players on the planet. Podkolzin has been a nice fit as a complementary piece. Matthews is elite, Marchenko has shown real scoring punch, and Roslovic has been a pleasant surprise driving play. But that still doesn’t match the pure star power and chemistry Edmonton has right now.

None of this means the Maple Leafs’ line is broken. As the chart shows, they are fifth-best in the NHL in expected goals for. The expected goals are still strong. Give them more time together and better finishing luck, and those numbers should climb. But right now the Oilers’ top line is operating on a different level — both in dominance and in results. Toronto’s version is still searching for that same kind of consistent impact.

Related: Gavin McKenna Lets Hiller Off the Hook, But Trust Issues Remain for Maple Leafs