Leafs Poor Contract Values May Explain Rielly and Carlo Trade Rumors

As the Toronto Maple Leafs push further into win-now mode, their roster construction is once again under the microscope — and it’s bringing names like Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo into trade speculation. While neither player is a glaring liability, both are part of a defensive core that’s starting to raise long-term concerns, particularly from a contract value standpoint.

A recent breakdown by Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic on NHL contract efficiency revealed a major gap between the Leafs and the league’s elite contenders. Teams like the Panthers, Lightning, and Hurricanes are not only stacked with talent — they’re doing it on bargain deals. Toronto, by contrast, sits closer to the middle of the league.

According to Dom Luszczyszyn:

“Toronto’s biggest issue is age, particularly on defense. On the surface, deals for Jake McCabe, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo and even Morgan Rielly look more than fair for the upcoming season and maybe even the year after. But it’s beyond where the value looks sketchier given the age of everyone involved.”

They’ve largely avoided bad contracts (David Kämpf being the notable exception), but they’re not getting enough high-impact value from their key players either.

Why Consider Rielly and Carlo Trades?

Clearly, contract value is not the only determining factor when an NHL franchise looks at trade options. At the same time, Luszczyszyn’s take on the value of these two players may be echoed by the Leafs organization. On paper, both Rielly and Carlo have reasonable cap hits for what they provide, but the value is dropping.

Age and future value projection are making them less attractive in the long run. Rielly, 30, still plays top-pair minutes but carries a long-term deal with cap implications that could become burdensome. Carlo, acquired to bring size and stability, hasn’t yet elevated the blue line as hoped. “That leaves Toronto in a precarious position where the Leafs are deep in win-now mode, but likely don’t have the roster to pull it off,” the scribe writes.

With the Leafs lacking cost-efficient contracts elsewhere and their blue line aging quickly, moving one of these two defensemen could free up cap space and allow GM Brad Treliving to target younger, high-upside players — the kind of deals championship teams are built on.

Neither trade is imminent, but as Toronto looks to stay competitive in a tightening cap environment, Rielly and Carlo are logical names to float — not because they’ve failed, but because the team can’t afford stagnation.

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