In Hindsight: The Oilers’ Goalie Signing That Made Sense — Until It Didn’t

With Jack Campbell officially retiring from professional hockey, I wanted to look back on the Edmonton Oilers ‘ decision-making nearly four years to the day of his signing a lucrative five-year deal worth $25 million.

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Campbell was coming off a season with the Toronto Maple Leafs in which he played 49 games, posting a .914 save percentage and a 2.64 goals-against average. He appeared to be coming into his own at 30 years old, playing the most games of his career in a season and posting consecutive years of fantastic numbers. Campbell was ready for a starter’s crease, having played mostly behind Frederik Andersen for parts of three seasons.

At the time, the Oilers had Mike Smith in the twilight of his career, leading them to the conference finals, where they eventually fell to the Colorado Avalanche in four games. Smith had a great tenure with the Oilers, but with injuries and age weighing him down, that would be the final games of his career. The Oilers needed stability in net, only having a 23-year-old Stuart Skinner who had a total of 14 NHL games played.

Jack Campbell – The Oilers’ Choice

The free agent pool had two main goalie options. One was 32-year-old Darcy Kuemper. He had a .921 save percentage and a 2.54 goals-against average for the eventual Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. The other was Campbell, who was a few years younger and appeared to be taking off in his career. Rumors at the time suggested the Oilers were more interested in signing Kuemper, but reportedly left the final decision up to much-maligned goalie coach Dustin Schwartz. Schwartz favored Campbell, and the Oilers decided to go that route.

Part of the decision might have had to do with health concerns, as Kuemper had some concerns about his eyesight, experiencing blurry vision from an errant high stick in the 2022 playoff run. It required specialized vision therapy and rehab before his eyesight fully returned to normal. As the Oilers chose Campbell, Kuemper would sign on the same day with the Washington Capitals for five years worth $26.25 million, making their contracts nearly identical.

In hindsight, this decision made sense for Edmonton. They needed to go out and get a starter. They made the slightly riskier bet on a goalie who had played fewer career games at the time (Campbell: 135 regular-season, 14 playoff vs Kuemper: 299 regular-season, 34 playoff), but was younger, did not have the vision concerns, and could help grow with Stuart Skinner to be a dynamic goalie duo. Neither Campbell nor Kuemper worked out for the teams they signed with; however, Kuemper is still playing 50 games per season for the Los Angeles Kings.

What If?

What if the Oilers had made the opposite choice and chosen to sign Kuemper instead?

Kuemper, in his first year with Washington, played 57 games, tying his career high. He put up a .909 save percentage and a 2.85 goals-against average, which are exceptional numbers given the workload. This would have platooned perfectly with a near-rookie goalie in Skinner, allowing Skinner to play around 25 games. Skinner instead played 50 games and was surprisingly even better than Kuemper with a .914 save percentage and a 2.75 goals-against average, making his first career All-Star appearance. However, Skinner was then forced to play 59 games the next year, and his numbers consistently dwindled in every season that followed, leading to his eventual controversial trade this past season.

With Kuemper here, the transition to full-time Skinner would likely be coming into fruition this upcoming season, with Skinner taking over a full starter’s crease at 27 instead of 23, and still having a capable, experienced backup to lean on. Kuemper did struggle in his second season with Washington, leading to a trade; however, the Oilers would have had a more ready Skinner to come in and help offset those struggles. The Oilers goalie situation could have been set for the past four years, rather than thrusting Skinner into a role he might not have been fully ready for.

Campbell instead played only 36 games in season one for the Oilers, posting a .888 save percentage and a 3.41 goals-against average. He did make four appearances in the playoffs that summer, having a gaudy .961 save percentage and a 1.01 goals-against average; however, Jay Woodcroft continued to go back to Skinner. He would play only five more games in 2023-24 before being relegated to the AHL, playing his last career NHL game and ending his Oilers career with 41 games played and four playoff appearances.

It is easy looking back to see why the Oilers made the choice they did, but in the end, all they have to show for it is dead cap space until 2030:

$2.6 million AAV in 2026-2027

$1.5 million AAV in 2027-2028

$1.5 million AAV in 2028-2029

$1.5 million AAV in 2029-2030

Happy retirement, Jack!

Next: Former Oilers, Maple Leafs, and Kings Goalie Announces Retirement at 34