How Many Points Will Maple Leafs’ Core Four Score this Season?

In this post, I’m going to go out on a limb to predict the scoring of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Core Four. In reading the post, I have to admit that I am optimistic by nature and I am particularly optimistic about this season with the team. As a result, I have probably tweaked the numbers upwards.

Still, it’s my looking forward to a great season for the Maple Leafs.

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2022-23 Scoring Predictions for the Maple Leafs Cour Four

The Maple Leafs’ Core Four typically includes Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. There’s a good argument that this Core Four should be revised to include other players – specifically Morgan Rielly. However, for this season I’m going to limit my predictions to the four players who have been considered the team’s core. They will likely engage in the bulk of the Maple Leafs’ offense. 

Here are my scoring predictions for each player for the 2022-23 season

Player	Goals	Assists	Points
Auston Matthews	55	65	120
Mitch Marner	38	70	108
William Nylander	40	45	85
John Tavares	37	46	83

Auston Matthews

This season, I predicted that Matthews won’t score 60 goals again. Not that it was a one-off, but I think he’ll likely grow his game in other ways. He’ll have a great season and will become almost as much of a setup player as a pure scorer.

I predict set a new career best with 120 points and a new career best in assists with 65. In short, I predict that Matthews’ total points will be higher because his assist total will rise significantly. I can see Michael Bunting, who’ll play on the first line for most of the season, as the key recipient of that growth in points. Bunting will likely score at least 25 goals, and I’m hoping for 30.

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Mitch Marner

Last season Marner scored 35 goals. This season, I predict he’ll score a few more. However, he too will register more assists. In 2018-19, he had 68 assists. I predict he’ll hit 70. His power-play production will increase.

I don’t believe Marner’s 35 goals were an anomaly, and I predict he’ll become more of a goal scorer throughout his career. The 70 assists will help him break the 100-point barrier for the first time in his career. 

While I don’t believe Marner will edge out Matthews in points, there’s a chance he will. The beneficiary of Marner’s increased assist total will once again be will be Bunting and will also be Nylander, who’ll score 40 goals (many of them on the power play).

William Nylander

I predict that Nylander will become a point-a-game scorer with 85 points on the season. I see him improving on his 34 goals last season to score 40. His increase in scoring will pump up both Matthews’ and Marner’s assist totals.

As noted, I see him registering more points on the power play. His increased goal scoring will also help his center Tavares’ production.

John Tavares

Tavares is going to be 32 a month from tomorrow (September 20). It seems that much of Maple Leafs’ Nation expects to see a regression in his production. I’m not buying it. Instead I predict 83 points for the season.

I see him coming close to his total during his first season with the team and predict that he’ll become a point-a-game player for the second time in his career. I hope he hits 40 goals.

The key reason I think Tavares will score more is that, while his analytics were really good last season, his shooting percentage was quite a bit lower than his career average. If that percentage returns to normal and he has similar analytics, he should surprise many. [Plus, I’m rooting for him because I think he deserves more appreciation from fans.]

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