Forget Max Term — Celebrini Proves NHL’s Superstars Think Differently

For years, the eight-year max-term contract was the holy grail for any young star entering restricted free agency. Lock in the security, secure the paycheck, and never worry about term again. That era is quietly (maybe not-so quietly) ending — and the skyrocketing salary cap is the reason why.

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Take Macklin Celebrini. When the Sharks and their franchise centerpiece worked out his new five-year contract, some fans and pundits grumbled that San Jose should have pushed harder for a full eight-year term instead of the shorter bridge-style deal they landed on. GM Mike Grier was pleased knowing that Celebrini could have asked for the max and didn’t, but some are still suggesting that the Sharks potentially painted themselves into a corner.

But that criticism isn’t fair, and frankly, it misses the point entirely.

This wasn’t really about who the Sharks were negotiating against — it was about what they were negotiating against: a salary cap climbing faster than it has in league history.

Just Look at the Math

The math explains everything. With the NHL cap projected to reach somewhere in the $150 million to $160 million range by the 2031-32 season, a player who takes 16 percent (which is about what Celebrini took on this deal) of the cap in his next deal could be looking at something like a $24 million AAV. On the max allowable under the CBA, that shoots up to $30 million. Locking into a long-term contract today, at today’s cap-adjusted numbers, means potentially leaving $20-30 million on the table over the life of the deal. For a bona fide superstar, that’s not security — that’s a discount.

It’s also kind of dumb.

The league’s brightest young players are treating long bridge deals and shorter flexible contracts as the smarter play. Connor Bedard, Celebrini, Jason Robertson, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli (who is likely to sign soon)— all understand the same basic truth: another massive payday is likely coming right behind the one they just signed, as long as the cap keeps rising and their performance keeps up. Betting on themselves now is a bet the math actually supports.

Related: Did Celebrini Actually Take a Discount — or Just Reset the Market?

Are There Exceptions To This Kind of Thinking?

Not every player benefits from this approach, though. Long-term security still makes sense in two specific situations. First, for players who aren’t guaranteed superstars — those in the “fringe” tier where demand for their services isn’t locked in year after year. For them, a long deal isn’t leaving money on the table; it’s insurance against a career that might not trend upward.

Second, for veterans in the back half of their careers, term becomes the priority rather than upside. Players in their 30s and beyond don’t have the same confidence that another big offer is coming, so locking in years — even at a lower cap hit than a rising market might eventually offer — provides peace of mind that a bridge deal simply can’t. In other words, take the money now and get the term commitment because it may never come again.

Contract term has become a bigger negotiating chip than the AAV. Going shorter reflects where a player sits on the aging curve and how much upward mobility the cap still offers them. For rising superstars, betting short is betting on themselves and on a cap that keeps climbing. Literally, their only risk is injury. For everyone else, security becomes the smarter long-term play.

Expect this trend to keep accelerating as the cap continues its climb over the next several years. No star wants to sign a big deal today that looks like a huge bargain in three or four seasons. Even for Celebrini (who wanted to help the Sharks) he’s projected to be the highest-paid player in the NHL who never actually plays a game as the highest-paid player. Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and others could potentially negotiate deals that come in higher.

The players cashing in early on shorter deals now may end up looking like the shrewdest negotiators in the league by the time their next contract comes due. PuckPedia writes, “Celebrini’s deal has set a new high bar for what teams will need to pay to keep a franchise player from fielding offers from rival clubs. But with so many other franchise-calibre players eligible for new deals either now, or within the next 12 months, that bar will only continue to rise.”

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Oilers, Sharks & Senators Hit Snag