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Did the Leafs Make the Right Call Taking McKenna Over Stenberg
A breakdown of Toronto’s decision to draft Gavin McKenna over Ivar Stenberg and what it could mean for the Leafs and Sharks moving forward.
The top two players in the 2026 NHL Draft already look like they’re going to be franchise pillars. Toronto won the lottery and took Gavin McKenna first overall, leaving Ivar Stenberg for the San Jose Sharks at No. 2. Ever since that moment, the two have been stapled together in every conversation, every highlight pack, every preseason breakdown.
And so far? Both have flashed exactly why they were the top two picks.
McKenna has been slippery and creative, darting through the neutral zone, drawing penalties, and setting up teammates. The points haven’t come yet — just a lone secondary assist — but the underlying play is there. Stenberg, meanwhile, detonated in his most recent outing with a hat trick and a four‑point night. One is teasing. One is producing.
The debate isn’t going anywhere.
Stenberg vs. McKenna: The Pre‑Draft Divide
Leading up to the draft, Toronto was under the microscope. Most scouts had McKenna slightly ahead, but plenty argued Stenberg was more NHL‑ready and more built for the pro game right now. Both are 18. Both are listed as left wings. Stenberg has the size edge at 6’0, 181 lbs; McKenna sits at 5’11, 170.
McKenna spent last season at Penn State, where he struggled early adjusting to older, stronger competition. But once he found his footing, he took off — 15 goals and 51 points in 35 games, plus 14 points in seven games at the World Juniors. His late‑season surge was a big reason Toronto felt comfortable betting on his ceiling.
Stenberg’s résumé is different. He’s already been playing against men for parts of two seasons. Last year in the SHL, he posted 11 goals and 33 points in 43 games — the third‑highest point total ever for an 18‑year‑old in the league, trailing only Daniel and Henrik Sedin. And the twins played more games. Give Stenberg those extra six or seven games and he might be the all‑time leader.
That’s why so many scouts believed Stenberg was the more NHL‑ready option. He’s already proven he can hang with pros.
Preseason: Early Clues, Not Conclusions
McKenna has looked solid in preseason — skilled, confident, creative — but hasn’t converted it into points. He hasn’t faced a true top‑flight NHL lineup yet, so the real test is still coming. What is encouraging is the process. According to Mike Kelly (NHL Network), McKenna leads the Leafs in zone entries (17), offensive‑zone possession time (2:13), and slot passes (8). That’s exactly the kind of profile Toronto drafted him for.
Stenberg, on the other hand, has already delivered a statement game. Yes, it came against a weak Ducks roster, but a four‑point night is a four‑point night. He was the best player on the ice, and the Sharks iced a legitimate NHL lineup. Standing out in that environment matters — even if preseason isn’t gospel. On paper, his preseason is far more impressive, and he may still get another taste of action as the Sharks have another game.
Did Toronto Make a Mistake?
This question will hover over both players for years: Did the Leafs pick the right guy?
Right now, there’s no honest way to say yes or no. Neither has faced true NHL competition. Neither has gone through the grind of an 82‑game season. Injuries, usage, linemates, coaching — all of it will shape their rookie years.
McKenna joins a revamped Leafs roster with elite talent around him and a new coaching staff implementing new systems. He’ll get every chance to play with Auston Matthews or William Nylander. That’s a dream landing spot for a playmaker.
Stenberg steps into an up‑and‑coming Sharks team loaded with young talent and supported by new veteran additions. He’ll have depth around him, but he won’t be the face of the franchise — Macklin Celebrini already owns that spotlight.
And that’s where the biggest difference lies: pressure.
McKenna is walking into Toronto — the most suffocating hockey market in the world. Every shift is dissected. Every mistake is clipped and posted. TSN and Sportsnet will break down his game frame‑by‑frame. If he misses a pass, it’s a segment. If he has a quiet night, it’s a storyline.
Stenberg gets San Jose. Quiet market. Space to breathe. Space to grow. No daily media circus. No fanbase ready to melt down after a slow start.
That matters. A lot.
What It All Means
Both players look like they’re going to be excellent NHLers. Their paths will be different, their timelines will be different, and their markets couldn’t be more opposite. Preseason isn’t enough to draw conclusions — it’s barely enough to form a hint.
But the noise will grow if McKenna struggles early and Stenberg doesn’t. Toronto fans are already restless. The comparison will be constant. The pressure will be relentless.
We’ll get our first real taste of the McKenna‑Stenberg rivalry on October 19th, when the Leafs and Sharks face off in Toronto. It’s already circled on the calendar. It’s going to be a show.
Next: Can Gavin McKenna Survive Toronto’s Outrageous Expectations?
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