Carlsson Offer Sheet Saga Should Have Oilers Worried About Their 20-Goal Guy

The Leo Carlsson offer sheet didn’t just reshape Anaheim’s summer — it’s changing how every team in the league thinks about young players approaching their second contract. For Edmonton, it’s a lesson they’ve already learned the hard way. They’ll want to avoid another painful reminder with Matt Savoie.

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Savoie is still under team control for now, but he’s one year away from needing a new deal, and, as a pending RFA with the potential for a 20-plus-goal season ahead, he could become a target. The Oilers eased him in slowly, but he finished the 2025-26 season with 18 goals. Savoie posted modest numbers for a while, but in the back half of last season, everything changed. He moved up the lineup and eventually landed on Connor McDavid‘s wing, delivering 2.23 points per 60 at five-on-five the rest of the way. As Allan Mitchell of The Athletic points out, over his final 41 games, he scored 6-13-19 at five-on-five alone, with his underlying numbers next to McDavid actually outperforming Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the same role against elite competition.

That kind of second-half surge is exactly what makes a player dangerous to leave unsigned. The Oilers know this because they made the same mistakes with Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, and now that the Ducks are trying to stay above water while their feet paddle wildly under the surface, Edmonton would be wise to make Savoie a priority.

With the Carlsson offer sheet raising the ceiling on what teams are now willing to pay to poach a cost-controlled young player, that risk is higher than ever.

Savoie Is Not a Player the Oilers Want to Lose

The financial logic to get this done as soon as possible is simple: Savoie is cheaper to sign this summer than he will be after a potential breakout season. Early fan projections had him in the range of $4 million over four years before the Carlsson deal; postseason comparables like Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven‘s contracts suggest that number could climb well beyond that if he waits.

Allowing him to have a big year before signing him opens the door to offer sheets and forces the Oilers to meet different comparables. Look at what the Ducks were forced to pay just to get Pavel Mintyukov. $7.4 miillion for five years might not turn out to be a massive overpay, but it’s full price, and the Ducks could have gotten this done for a cheaper rate if a pending offer sheet wasn’t out there.

For a front office that already had one of the more productive offseasons in the league, locking up Savoie now would close the door on Edmonton’s next offer-sheet vulnerability before it opens.

Next: NHL Trade Talk Recap: Canadiens, Stars, Oilers, Canucks & Sneaky Logic